Belmont Stakes fair odds: Derby returnees hold big edge
Given that seven of the 12 possible starters for the Belmont Stakes as of Monday last raced in the Kentucky Derby, it makes sense that the winner on June 6 at Saratoga is most likely to come from that septet.
But the real good news is that we're likely to get wagering value on at least a few of those horses because Derby winner Golden Tempo figures to get overbet in his return against the likes of Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Emerging Market, Potente and beaten favorite Renegade. Ocelli is an eighth Derby starter, but he raced in the Preakness. No Preakness loser has won the Belmont since 1998 when Victory Gallop upset Real Quiet's Triple Crown bid.
Figuring on the top two Derby finishers taking the most money in the Belmont means that at least one of Chief Wallabee, Commandment and Emerging Market have to be value against this group. But Renegade could be usable as well, depending on how much money Golden Tempo takes. I'll stick with my pre-Derby read that the Santa Anita Derby (G1) horses are tosses.
That leaves Peter Pan Stakes winner Growth Equity as the wild card in the wagering. The Peter Pan has a tremendous history as a Belmont prep, having produced three winners in the last 11 non-COVID years of the race, most recently with Arcangelo in 2023.
Belmont Stakes fair odds
| Horse | Trainer | Fair odds |
| Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | 5-1 |
| Chip Honcho | Steve Asmussen | 29-1 |
| Commandment | Brad Cox | 6-1 |
| Emerging Market | Chad Brown | 8-1 |
| Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 9-1 |
| Growth Equity | Chad Brown | 8-1 |
| Ocelli | Whit Beckman | 58-1 |
| Ottinho | Chad Brown | 55-1 |
| Potente | Bob Baffert | 20-1 |
| Renegade | Todd Pletcher | 9-2 |
| So Happy | Mark Glatt | 25-1 |
| Talk To Me Jimmy | Rudy Rodriguez | 30-1 |