Belmont Stakes: Tapits jump forward from Derby to Belmont
By now, most horseplayers are familiar with the success of Tapit offspring in the Belmont. But even more amazing is the level of improvement Tapit runners have found going from the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont.
A total of seven 3-year-olds sired by Tapit have run in the Derby and the Belmont. The chart above illustrates the level of success.
- From seven starters, three have won (43 percent)
- All seven Tapit Derby-to-Belmont starters have hit the board in the Belmont, with three wins, two seconds, two thirds (100 percent)
- On average, their finish position improved 4.9 positions from the Derby to the Belmont
- Their average Derby finish was 6.7, but their average Belmont finish is 1.8
So these Derby-to-Belmont Tapit stats are a little different than broadly saying that all Tapits do well in the Belmont. In fact, for the five Tapit Belmont starters who did not run in the Derby, the level of success was not the same. Those starters are Tonalist (first, 2014), Matterhorn (eighth, 2014), Intrepid Heart (eighth, 2019), Bourbon War (10th, 2019) and Tap It to Win (fifth, 2020).
For a side-by-side comparison:
- Derby to Belmont: 7 starters, 3-2-2 (43 percent win, 100 percent in the money)
- No Derby to Belmont: 5 starters, 1-0-0 (20 percent win, 20 percent in the money)
Tapit in the Derby
Looking at Tapit's record in the Derby alone, it hasn't been good. From 14 starters, only one hit the board, and that was Tacitus when he finished fourth in 2019 but was moved to third after the disqualification of Maximum Security.
Tapit's record as a sire in the Derby
| Year | Horse | Odds | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Hansen | 13-1 | 9 |
| 2013 | Normandy Invasion | 9-1 | 4 |
| 2014 | Tapiture | 35-1 | 15 |
| 2015 | Frosted | 10-1 | 4 |
| 2016 | Lani | 29-1 | 9 |
| 2016 | Creator | 16-1 | 13 |
| 2016 | Mohaymen | 11-1 | 4 |
| 2017 | Tapwrit | 27-1 | 6 |
| 2018 | Hofburg | 27-1 | 7 |
| 2019 | Tacitus | 5-1 | 3 |
| 2020 | Enforceable | 22-1 | 7 |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 5-2 | 4 |
| 2022 | Charge It | 16-1 | 17 |
| 2023 | Tapit Trice | 9-2 | 7 |
So from 14 starters in the Derby, no Tapit-sired runner has ever crossed the wire in the top three. Why is the Derby such a bad fit for Tapit's where the Belmont is a great fit? I asked Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Kentucky Derby Super Screener and the Belmont Stakes Super Screener.
"Tapit-bred horses are generally long-striding horses that take time to reach stride efficiency. But once they do, they distribute elevated levels of energy in a very even, balanced way and sustain their top speed for as many as three to four furlongs," Shutty explained.
"They are not agile enough to recover from a disruption in their stride, which often happens in a crowded Derby field," he added. "So the smaller fields of the third leg of the Triple Crown combined with the sweeping turns of Belmont Park create the perfect setup for a move forward. In contrast, Derby winners typically own more gate speed and show a sharp turn of foot for up to two furlongs."
Which explains well the significant difference between the Derby and Belmont results.
Full Belmont results for Tapit starters
Looking at all Tapit Belmont starters, the record is 4-2-2 from 12 starters. Here are the full results:
| Year | Horse | Odds | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Matterhorn | 40-1 | 8 |
| 2014 | Tonalist | 9-1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Frosted | 4-1 | 2 |
| 2016 | Lani | 12-1 | 3 |
| 2016 | Creator | 16-1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Tapwrit | 5-1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Hofburg | 5-1 | 3 |
| 2019 | Bourbon War | 10-1 | 10 |
| 2019 | Tacitus | 9-5 | 2 |
| 2019 | Intrepid Heart | 6-1 | 8 |
| 2020 | Tap It to Win | 5-1 | 5 |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 6-5 | 1 |
What can we expect this year?
Based on past results, we should expect strong improvement from Tapit Trice, who finished seventh in this year's Kentucky Derby. Another potential Belmont Stakes starter sired by Tapit is Tapit Shoes. It will be interesting to see how both fare in the test of champions.