Belmont Stakes 2026: Ranking the field 1st to last
Golden Tempo accomplished a pair of rare feats when he won the 2026 Kentucky Derby. He became only the ninth horse to close from last to win the race and the first to win for a female trainer.
The Derby winner will have to buck a recent trend if he is to win the 2026 Belmont Stakes. Twenty-three different horses have won the last 24 Triple Crown races. Sovereignty is the only horse to win two Triple Crown races since 2019. Golden Tempo is a very nice colt, but most people would not put him at the same level as Sovereignty at this point in his career. Many of his main challengers from the Kentucky Derby return to try to turn the tables in the Belmont Stakes. Below I analyze the entire 2026 Belmont Stakes field as I predict the order of finish from first to last.
1st, Chief Wallabee (3-1). Bill Mott's colt was my top pick in the Kentucky Derby, and I am not jumping off the bandwagon now. He was not going to defeat Golden Tempo on the first Saturday in May, but he ran a solid fourth after being pinballed around in the stretch. He is green and quirky, but the more experience he gains, the more his immense talent should shine through. The son of Constitution might finally put it all together while making his second start in blinkers. His best asset in this race is his ability to be tactical. His main rivals are all deep closers, and he has shown the versatility to sit just off the pace. I expect him to be second or third early in a race with very little early pace and get first run on Renegade, Commandment and Golden Tempo.
2nd, Renegade (2-1). The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner had a bit of early trouble while breaking from the rail in the Kentucky Derby. It may be unfair to say it cost him the race as some have noted, but regardless, he put forth a great effort. His form was as good as any leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and he appears to be the most reliable horse in this race as an exotics key. His combination of talent and stamina might be the highest of this group, and he is a deserving favorite. The lone concern for this colt is his complete lack of early speed. Like Golden Tempo, he will be closing from the clouds, but he might have very little early pace in front of him to flatter his huge closing kick.
3rd, Commandment (6-1). This Brad Cox runner is a bit of a grinder who would really benefit from the traditional 1 1/2-mile layout. His four-race winning streak was snapped in the Kentucky Derby, but he did not have smooth sailing and will appreciate being out in the clear from an outside draw in a smaller field. He won the best of the 2026 Kentucky Derby preps when capturing the Florida Derby (G1) and has shown the grit to withstand a driving finish. It is possible that his grueling win in the Florida Derby left his tank at less than 100% for the Kentucky Derby. If he is at his best, he will be right in the mix at the finish.
4th, Powershift (12-1). The recent maiden winner is the only runner in this field who is not stakes-placed, but he could find himself on the lead in a race that is short on early pace. He has been touted since day one and could prove to be this good as the "other" Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher runner, Renegade. His Tampa Bay Derby (G3) flop likely was the result of trying to do too much too soon over a tricky track. If the lightbulb has turned on after his last start, he could be dangerous.
5th, Golden Tempo (9-2). The son of Curlin showed quite the closing kick to pass every runner and win the Kentucky Derby. Though he was 23-1, I do not feel his Derby win was a fluke. That was his second start with blinkers, and he was arguably best in his previous start in the Louisiana Derby (G2) when Jose Ortiz killed his momentum by ducking to the inside in deep stretch. The biggest concern is that he appears to be a bit pace-dependent as a deep closer. He is unlikely to get the same pace setup that he got in the Kentucky Derby as much less early speed is signed on in the Belmont.
6th, Emerging Market (6-1). The first of three Chad Brown entrants had no excuse when running 10th in the Kentucky Derby. In his defense, he was trying to do something that had not been done since 1883 in seeking to win the roses only his third lifetime start. There still might be room for improvement, and it is worth noting that he defeated Golden Tempo in the Louisiana Derby. I prefer a handful of others more, but it would not be a surprise to see him run well.
7th, Growth Equality (12-1). The son of Nyquist brings an improving pattern into this race. It is encouraging that he has gotten better as the distances have progressed. The concern is the quality and quantity of horses he has been facing. He has beaten a combined seven horses in his last two races and might be a step below the best of the crop.
8th, Vitruvian Man (30-1). The longest shot in this field had a subtly tough trip in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when he was shuffled to the back of the pack. He grinded out a third-place finish in a manner that would suggest the added distance of this race will be beneficial. With that said, he was no threat to So Happy or Potente, and neither of those runners factored in the Kentucky Derby.
9th, Ottinho (20-1). Someone had to finish second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), and he had now lost his last two efforts by 11 lengths or more. His speed figure improved last out with the addition of blinkers, but he still would need to take another massive step forward to get a piece.