Belmont Stakes 2026: 3 winning trends to watch

The Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga for the third and final time on Saturday, June 6, at the shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles. In 2027, the rebuilt Belmont Park will host the test of the champion at its usual distance of 1 1/2 miles.

In the two prior upstate editions of the third leg of the Triple Crown, the favorite did not win, with Sierra Leone finishing third in 2024 and Journalism second last year. Both years, the trifecta had only 3-year-olds who made their most recent start at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby day card or at Pimlico in the Preakness. The winners Dornoch and Sovereignty had similar trips where they tracked the pace for the first mile, were within a length of the lead at the stretch call and moved ahead from there.

In the past nine editions of the Belmont, the favorite was the winner four times, and they finished in the top three  the other five times. In 2016, Exaggerator was 11th following his Preakness victory. This century, the top betting choice won the Belmont Stakes seven times, and eight times they did not finish in the trifecta. Horses who had run on Kentucky Derby or Preakness day cards completed all three top spots in the Belmont Stakes 16 times.

Historically since 2000, only three Belmont Stakes victories came after front-end trips. Justify and American Pharoah completed their Triple Crown titles in 2018 and 2015 when they got clear leads early in the race and maintained comfortable margins all the way. In 2008 Da’ Tara jumped out to a three-length lead and never had to look back.

Although there were only three front-end winners in the Belmont, deep closers, who were behind by more than 10 lengths at any point in the race, were even more unusual. In 2006 Jazil rallied from 12th place, almost 12 lengths behind, to a clear victory of more than a length. Creator was close to 10 lengths behind in 2016 when he rallied from the 11th position to win by a nose.

Most commonly the Belmont Stakes winners stayed within three lengths of the early leader while pressing or stalking the pace. That has happened 15 times since the year 2000, including seven of the last 10 years. The recent exceptions were Essential Quality in 2021, Sir Winston in 2019 and Creator in 2016. 

That means that the profile of a Belmont Stakes winner would include a recent start on the Kentucky Derby or Preakness day cards, is not going to be the favorite and can be expected to be stalking or pressing the early pace.