Belmont Stakes 2025: Ranking the field from 1st to last
Even without the possibility of a Triple Crown winner, this year's Belmont Stakes has plenty of intrigue. The setting of Saratoga makes for the perfect backdrop for the rematch of the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby and a few interesting new shooters.
Journalism, Sovereignty and Baeza stamped themselves as the three best horses in their crop before the Kentucky Derby, and it was nice to see the result confirm their status. They are in a league of their own, and the biggest question is the order in which they will finish when they square off again on Saturday. Below I rank all eight runners in the 2025 Belmont Stakes from first through last.
1st, Journalism, (8-5). This colt is the definition of relentless, and if any horse can shrug off a big effort three weeks later it is this runner. He was the clear leader of this division before the Kentucky Derby, and his Preakness Stakes win was remarkable. It is easy to make the case that the wet track in Kentucky moved him down a peg and Sovereignty up a notch. He continues to run well without ideal trips and Saturday could be the day he gets smooth sailing. The son of Curlin will prove that horses still are capable of running in all three stages of the Triple Crown and will get his revenge on Sovereignty.
2nd, Baeza, (4-1). John Shirreffs's pricey colt is bred to be a good one and might be the most rapidly improving horse in this 3-year-old crop. His Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form has improved in every start, and another step forward could make him the horse to beat. He was farther back than he likely wanted in the Kentucky Derby from a wide draw, but he has shown twice now that the gap between him and Journalism is not much. Despite a small field, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby was the strongest prep, and it would not be surprising to see the top two finishers repeat that result in the Belmont Stakes.
3rd, Sovereignty, (2-1). Bill Mott's colt was primed and ready for a peak performance in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and he delivered with a ferocious late kick to defeat Journalism and Baeza. His win was not a fluke as he had strong prior form leading up to the race, but I do think the wet track moved him up a bit as Journalism's form was a touch stronger prior to the Kentucky Derby and was validated in the Preakness Stakes. Sovereignty has been rested instead of running in the Preakness Stakes to the dismay of myself and others, but he should be fresh after that career-best performance. He is likely to put forth another strong effort, but the only way to make money is to keep him or Journalism out of the exacta and I have a slight preference to Journalism.
4th, Rodriguez, (6-1). Bob Baffert's colt is the likely pace setter in this race and could be dangerous if he is able to shake off Crudo early. He showed nice improvement in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) without blinkers, and his two races in which he has been able to make the lead have led to results that would make him a prime contender. He has not been nearly as good when he can not make the lead, and the tactics used aboard Crudo will make or break his chances. He is the only runner outside the Kentucky Derby trio who has a path to victory.
5th, Hill Road, (10-1). The son of Quality Road showed improvement when winning the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) after a disappointing third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He should have no problem with the added distance and will be hoping for a fast early pace. He is a bit of a plodder, but he will be picking up the pieces.
6th, Heart of Honor, (30-1). Jamie Osborne's colt is a notch below the best in this crop, but he has shown he can handle the distance and pass tired horses. He did not have the cleanest of trips in the Preakness and came with an honest rally to run fifth. He is not a win contender, but he is the type of runner who could fill out the bottom of a superfecta at a big price.
7th, Crudo, (15-1). The Sir Barton Stakes winner owns two romping wins in a row and now is tested for class. He has yet to show he can pass horses or run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Rodriguez has run his best races on the lead and is not likely to concede the front to this colt. Todd Pletcher's runner might have a nice future in front of him, but he is not likely to get the scenario he needs to be at his best on Saturday.
8th, Uncaged, (30-1). Todd Pletcher's second entrant will be doing a rain dance on Saturday. There is a chance of light rain, but it would be surprising if this colt gets the muddy track he needs. His two efforts on a fast track resulted in a fourth-place finish in a five-horse field and a distant sixth-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). Even if he gets a wet track, he is still up against it from a class standpoint.