Belmont Stakes 2025: Odds and analysis for Saratoga

The $2 million, Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga at the distance of 1 1/4 miles because of the ongoing construction of a new version of Belmont Park. Eight 3-year-olds were drawn Monday evening with Preakness winner Journalism identified as the 8-5 morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty at 2-1.

The Belmont field includes the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby. Journalism will be the only one to run in all three legs of the 2025 Triple Crown. Five of the horses won their most recent starts, including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Wood Memorial (G2), Peter Pan (G3) and Sir Barton.

A look at Belmont Stakes winners since 2000 shows that the 25 post-time favorites had seven victories, placed six times and got four thirds. Thus, only eight favorites ended up off the board.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Belmont Stakes with the official track morning-line odds. The final leg of this year’s Triple Crown is scheduled as race 13 of 14 with post time at 7:04 p.m. EDT.

1. Hill Road, 10-1. Quality Road – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr.– 5: 2-0-2 - $336,496. Hill Road will try to become the third winner of the Peter Pan (G3) since 2000 to become the Belmont victor following Arcangelo in 2023 and Tonalist in 2014. Hill Road began his career in Ireland and came to the Breeders’ Cup to run third in the Juvenile Fillies after which he moved to the barn of Chad Brown. He was third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) before his Peter Pan victory. Toss.

2. Sovereignty, 2-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 6: 3-2-0 - $3,672,800. Sovereignty will try to become the first Kentucky Derby winner, excluding Triple Crown winners, to get a Belmont victory since Thunder Gulch in 1995. Although the filly Rags to Riches won the 2007 Belmont following a Kentucky Oaks victory. Sovereignty will return to Saratoga, where in August he finished fourth in his debut. He broke his maiden in his third start which was on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Street Sense (G3), where he rallied from last as the favorite. He won the Fountain of Youth (G2) and was second in the Florida Derby (G1) before the first Saturday in May. Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer. Top choice.

3. Rodriguez, 6-1. Authentic – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 5: 2-2-1 - $522,800. Rodriguez returns from a two-month layoff following his victory in the Wood Memorial (G2). Tiz the Law went from his 2020 win in the Florida Derby to take the Belmont which was shortened to nine furlongs during COVID. The Wood Memorial win was a fast performance when he got loose on the lead and won by almost four lengths. He was forced to miss the Derby and Preakness due to a quarter crack that caused a two-month layoff. He had only one victory before that race at Aqueduct with a third in the San Felipe (G2) and a second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Bob Baffert has three victories in the Belmont Stakes with Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah along with Point Given in 2001. Win contender.

4. Uncaged, 30-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 2-0-0 - $105,450. Uncaged was last seen finishing sixth in the Peter Pan (G3). The only non-winner of that prep race since 2000 to win the Belmont was Sir Winston. Uncaged was a winner in debut at Saratoga in August at 5-1. He was fourth in an allowance at Gulfstream Park in his 2025 debut and then won a one-mile allowance at Aqueduct in April before the Peter Pan (G3). Toss.

5. Crudo, 15-1. Justify – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 3: 2-0-0 - $130,148. Crudo could become the second horse this century to go from a victory in the Sir Barton on Preakness weekend to win the Belmont joining Sarava in 2002. Ruler On Ice in 2011 and Da’ Tara in 2008 ran second in other Pimilico stakes before they won the Belmont. The lightly raced son of Justify broke his maiden in his second try at Keeneland and went up to train at Saratoga prior to his Sir Barton win. He will try graded-stakes company for the first time in the Belmont. Todd Pletcher won the Belmont Stakes four times beginning with filly Rags to Riches in 2007, followed by Palace Malice in 2013, Tapwrit in 2017 and Mo Donegal in 2022. Live long shot.

6. Baeza, 4-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat – 5: 1-2-1 - $648,500. Baeza returns from his third-place finish in the Run for the Roses. 13 horses this century ran in the Derby without winning and got a Belmont victory in their next start including three of the last four years. Remembering that Baeza was a late edition to the Derby field and broke from post-position 19 to charge down the stretch after a very wide trip and finished a neck behind Journalism. He went back to California to prepare for the Belmont and posted a four-furlong and six-furlong workouts. Baeza broke his maiden in his third start and then had the lead in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) before getting passed by Journalism. Win contender.

7. Journalism, 8-5. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli – 7: 5-1-1 - $2,838,880. Since 2000, four Preakness winners went on to win the Belmont Stakes. That includes Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah along with Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001, who both also ran in the Kentucky Derby. So much has been said about Journalism’s eye-catching victory in the Preakness after his rough trip down the stretch to catch Gosger, who had gotten loose on the lead. In the Derby, Journalism rallied with a wide trip to get to the lead heading into the stretch drive and was passed by Sovereignty on that sloppy and sealed track. Heading to the Triple Crown, the son of Curlin has won four consecutive races moving from his maiden victory to the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Win contender.

8. Heart of Honor, 30-1. Honor A. P. – Jamie Osborne / Saffie Osborne – 7: 2-4-0 - $400,919. Heart of Honor was fifth in the Preakness in his first start in North America. He had five races in Dubai at Meydan where he had three second-place finishes in stakes including the UAE Derby (G2). Toss.

Summary: The winner of the Belmont is likely to come from the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty is well-rested after his Kentucky Derby victory having skipped the Preakness. He has been training at Saratoga since the Derby. Journalism has never run a bad race and seems to be thriving from the experience of the Derby trail and the Triple Crown. Baeza is a bit of a wild card with just one victory in his career but his performances in Kentucky and Santa Anita were promising.

Sovereignty beat Journalism on the first Saturday in May and Journalism beat Baeza twice and Rodriguez once. Sovereignty and Journalism are the top two and the Bill Mott runner has the edge as the fresher horse. The top pick in the Belmont is Sovereignty.