Belmont Stakes 2023: What will be the winner’s running style?
Elmont, N.Y.
In the 2023 Belmont Stakes, the 5-2 morning line favorite Forte is one of five horses in the field of nine with a strong preference to race from off the pace with the running style of a closer.
Closers prefer to race five to six lengths behind the early pace setters in the middle of the field. Since 2000, seven horses raced as a closer to win the Belmont. Most recently it was Essential Quality, who was seven lengths behind after a half-mile then rallied to have the lead with a quarter mile to go and drew off to win by 1 1/4 lengths.
Birdstone used a closing trip in 2004 to defeat Smarty Jones in his attempt to win the Triple Crown. Trained by Nick Zito, Birdstone was seventh in the early going in a field of nine but never was more than five lengths behind the leader.
In the Florida Derby (G1), Forte was in ninth position in a field of 12, a little more than five lengths behind. At the stretch call he had almost three lengths to make up, and he closed decidedly to win by a length.
In this Belmont field, Forte is joined by his Todd Pletcher stablemate Tapit Trice as a closer along with Arcangelo and two of the Brad Cox runners Hit Show and Angel of Empire. These closers include five of the top six choices on the morning line.
The two longest prices on the line might use a pace-pressing style in the 1 1/2-mile test of the champion. Tapit Shoes raced one to two lengths behind the early fractions of his most recent starts and gained to finish less than a length behind the winner. Only two pressers won the Belmont this century.
Red Route One is the only deep closer in the field. You can find the deep closers at the back of the field, and they frequently are more than 10 lengths behind the leader in the early stages of the race. Deep closers depend on a fast pace to have a chance to win, and Jazil was the only Belmont winner since 2000 with the distant running style. The 2006 winner was last in a field of 12 almost 12 lengths behind the lead but amazingly was in the lead with a quarter-mile to go.
The Preakness winner National Treasure won in Baltimore as a front runner, in the lead at every point of call. This year’s Belmont field is filled with late runners, so there is little question that trainer Bob Baffert will want jockey John Velazquez to go to the lead again right out of the starting gate. He got a length ahead at Pimlico and held that margin until the stretch, where he won a heated duel by a head. Since 2000 only three horses won the Belmont racing out front, and two of them were the Baffert Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah. Those two joined the 2008 winner Da’ Tara, who was Nick Zito’s other Belmont winner.
A stalking trip has been optimal this century, producing eight Belmont winners with a typical move from two to three lengths behind in the early going. A streak of stalkers were victorious from 2012 to 2014 with Union Rags, Palace Malice and Tonalist. The most recent stalking winner was Tapwrit in 2017.
None of the horses in this year’s field are typically stalkers, but it might be prudent for some of the closers to try to stay closer to the early pace and use a stalking trip to get a victory in the test of the champion.