Belmont Stakes 2021: Key insights to hit the superfecta

One note before we begin… put a big asterisk next to the 2020 running of the Belmont Stakes. In the COVID-impacted year, that race was run at 1 1/8 miles and it was the first leg in the Triple Crown. That dictated a completely different training schedule and even favored different types of horses based on the abbreviated distance. For the purposes of this analysis we looked at 2000 to 2019 Belmont Stakes races.

For Belmont winners, where did they run their prior race?

In the last 20 years, horses that won the Belmont Stakes have exited the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or, increasingly, the Peter Pan Stakes. Here’s a breakdown by track:

• Churchill Downs = 10 winners

• Belmont Park = 3 winners

The three Belmont Stakes winners that exited the Peter Pan Stakes have taken place in just the past 10 years. Do note that horses running in the Kentucky Derby but did not run in the Preakness make up half the winners over the past 20 years.

The Pletcher Factor

It is no secret that Todd Pletcher points to this race and has enjoyed considerable success when it comes to his charges hitting the superfecta. In fact, he has had 13 runners finish in the superfecta over the past 15 years and 4 of those runners were long shots. Over half of the 13 runners finished 2nd. One should give extra consideration to Pletcher runners when constructing wagering tickets.

What is the preferred running style for horses finishing in the Superfecta?

Unlike the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, there are no dominant running styles for horses that finish in the Exacta. By the way, that is regardless of the pace as off-the-pace types won in 2010 and 2007 when the 6-furlong fraction was 1:15+ and in 2014, Tonalist, a presser, won the Belmont Stakes in a relatively swift 6-furlong fraction of 1:12 4/5 as the pace horse, Da’ Tara, did in the 2008 renewal.

Now, when you get down to the 3rd and 4th place spots, the results get more interesting. Closers dominate the show spot and the combination of off-the-pace and closer types accounts for 85% of the 3rd place finishes. That is the same percentage for 4th place finishers though in this case, the off-the-pace types comprise the dominant running style.

So, when structuring Trifecta tickets make sure more emphasis is given to closers in that 3rd place spot.  For superfecta tickets, you would want to make sure off-the-pace types are well represented in the 4th place slot. Click image below to see it full-size.

How do long shots (15-1+) perform in the Belmont?

From 2000 to 2019 there were 22 long shots that hit the Superfecta in the Belmont Stakes. There was at least 1 long shot that made it into the Superfecta in 13 of the past 20 editions of the Belmont Stakes. Just over half of those 13 races featured 2 or more Superfecta-hitting long shots.

In the above chart we distributed those 22 long shots by running style and the track where that long shot raced prior to the Belmont Stakes. There is a lot of neutral blue in that chart indicating that a long shot can come from any running style and out of any prior race.

Once interesting consideration, however, is that off-the-pace or closer types coming into this race out of the Kentucky Derby account for over a third of the long shots that get into the Superfecta in the Belmont Stakes.

Lastly, give horses exiting the Peter Pan Stakes an extra look. Over the last 7 years there have been 5 horses that ran in the Peter Pan prior to the Belmont and finished in the superfecta … 3 of those horses were long shots, including the Pletcher-trained Commissioner at odds of 28-1.

Implications for this year’s Belmont:

Any running style is eligible to win the Belmont Stakes regardless of the pace set up. Even closers can win into a soft pace as the endurance advantage trumps the pace advantage at this 12-furlong distance. The pace projects to be softer this year but don’t eliminate those off-the-pace types that are scored high by the Super Screener.

Todd Pletcher has pointed to this race for many years now and his charges regularly hit the board and sometimes at a huge price. If he sends Overtook and/or Promise Keeper, they’ll offer square prices and should be given some emphasis in wagers with extra consideration being given to the 2nd place spot.

Over the last 20 years, there is no dominant running style when it comes to the exacta. However, in building that Trifecta ticket, closers dominate that 3rd place spot so closers like Known Agenda, Overtook and Rebel’s Romance would be ones to consider including in that 3rd place spot. For Superfectas, off-the-pace types like Essential Quality and Rombauer could be very useful candidates for that 4th place spot.

Just like the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, it is very common to see one or more 15-1 shots get into the Belmont Superfecta. Horses that had trouble in the Derby and are off-the-pace and closer types offer a higher probability of Superfecta success. Bourbonic may be the only horse that meets that criteria this year.

The Peter Pan Stakes has been a useful prep and runners exiting that race have regularly finished in the Superfecta offering a lot of value. Once again, Pletcher’s pair of Overtook and Promise Keeper would be this year’s Peter Pan value-play candidates.

Putting It All Together and Building Your Tickets

Super Screener Reader Testimonials

Super Screener long shot success

In 2017, the Super Screener added to its greatest Kentucky Derby scores by listing 33-1 Lookin At Lee as its top long shot. Super Screener also had 37-1 Commanding Curve as a top long shot in 2014 and 34-1 Golden Soul in 2013.

Prior Super Screener readers have done well and sent in many testimonials of their wins. 

Get Your Super Screener NOW & CRUSH the BELMONT!