Belmont Stakes 2020: Early odds and analysis

The $1 million Belmont Stakes will be run on June 20, which is just two weeks later than its original date, due to the COVID pandemic. This year’s distance was changed to a mile and an eighth which is run around only one-turn at Belmont Park.

There is a lot on the line in 2020 Belmont Stakes even though its place in the Triple Crown series was forced to change after the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness moved to September and October respectively.

Now the Triple Crown begins at Belmont Park and it also serves as an official Kentucky Derby prep race with the most qualifying points [150-60-30-15].

The bottom line is that if you want to have a chance to win the 2020 version of the Triple Crown, you have to begin with this year’s version of the Belmont Stakes.

The field will become official on Wednesday with the post-position draw. A new odds and analysis article will be posted that afternoon.

Here is an early analysis of the field, which is listed in alphabetical order, with projected odds by Horse Racing Nation.

Dr Post [ML 10-1 – Quality Road – Todd Pletcher – 3: 2-0-0 - $76,635 – 0 Derby points] Dr Post is one of the horses that has benefitted from the delay of the Triple Crown series. Lightly raced with just three career starts, he returned to the races in March and won both of his starts impressively at Gulfstream Park. The $400,000 yearling purchase had to overcome a couple of trip challenges in his April victory in the Unbridled Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth. Use in trifecta

Farmington Road [ML 20-1 – Quality Road – Todd Pletcher – 6: 1-2-0 - $110,000 – 15 Derby points (#26)] The one of two likely runners for trainer Todd Pletcher who was last seen finishing fourth in the Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby. The late running colt might prefer the big sweeping turn at Belmont Park because he can start his closing move early and be able to sustain it and there will also be pace to set things up. Bottom line is that he only has a maiden victory to his credit. Toss

Jungle Runner [ML 30-1 – Candy Ride – S. Asmussen – 8: 2-0-0 - $110,415 – 0 Derby points] His best form goes back to last year at Remington Park where he broke his maiden and then followed it with a stakes victory. As a 3-year-old, Jungle Runner has not been able to duplicate that form. Two starts on the Derby trail at Oaklawn park in the Smarty Jones and the Arkansas Derby (G1) produced eighth place finishes. Toss

Max Player [ML 15-1 – Honor Code – L. Rice – 3: 2-1-0 - $173,500 – 10 Derby points (#34)] Since his off the pace victory in the Withers (G3) in March, trainer Linda Rice has had to change plans with this son of Honor Code a couple times. The Wood Memorial got cancelled and when the date was announced for the Belmont Stakes, Rice decided to skip the Matt Winn at Churchill Downs and stay home. What that means is that Max Player will try the first leg of the Triple Crown coming from a more than three-month layoff. That is a tough task for a horse that was not fast enough for this field the last time we saw him run. Toss

Modernist [ML 15-1 – Uncle Mo – B. Mott – 5: 2-0-2 - $388,800 – 70 Derby points (#7)] Following his maiden breaker at Aqueduct in January, Modernist made a splash on the original Derby trail down at Fair Grounds. He pressed the pace and won the Risen Star (G2) and then was third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The level of competition of those New Orleans prep races is frequently called into question and this son of Uncle Mo will have trouble staying with the early runners from this field. Toss

Pneumatic [ML 8-1 – Uncle Mo – Steve Asmussen – 3: 2-0-1 - $101,850 – 10 Derby points (#37)] If trainer Steve Asmussen decides to send this lightly raced son of Uncle Mo to New York, he will be yet another one who prefers to be part of the early pace. He moved from an allowance victory at Oaklawn to a third-place finish in the Matt Winn and as a result his connections made him a late nominee to the Triple Crown series. Use underneath

Sole Volante [ML 9-2 – Karakontie – P. Biancone – 6: 4-1-1 - $266,310 – 30 Derby points (#16)] Instead of another typical morning workout, trainer Patrick Biancone opted to run Sole Volante in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park for his final preparation for the big race at Belmont. It turned out to be a very good field of six including the stakes winners Ete Indien and Shivaree. Sole Volante rallied from last almost nine lengths behind to win the one-turn mile by nearly a length. Remember that he won the Sam F. Davis (G3) and was second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Use underneath

Tap It to Win [ML 8-1 – Tapit – M. Casse – 5: 2-1-0 - $124,672 – 0 Derby points] Newly elected Hall of Fame inductee Mark Casse made this colt a more recent addition to the Belmont Stakes field after he overwhelmed an allowance field going a mile and a sixteenth in New York. He took the race on the front end with a lead of more than seven lengths at the stretch call and he was geared down to finish up by five at the wire. The race was fast and earned the winner a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. So, he will wheel right back in 16 days in a race that is just 110 yards more and stays in the one-turn configuration. Live longshot

Tiz the Law [ML 1-1 – Constitution – B. Tagg – 5: 4-0-1 - $945,300 – 122 Derby points (#1)] Tiz the Law has been on top of most of the Kentucky Derby contender lists since he won the Holy Bull (G3) and the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park by a combined 7 ¼ lengths. The pandemic changed the plans for this New York-bred and eventually the connections decided that they would head to first Saturday in September by way of New York. Tiz the Law will enter the Belmont after a layoff of almost three months. In that time, Kentucky Derby winning trainer Barclay Tagg sent him to the track for nine official breezes with all but the most recent two happening in Florida. He won his only start at Belmont last year in the Champagne (G1). Top Choice