Belmont Oaks Invitational: Odds, analysis for Saratoga turf test

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The Grade 1, $500,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational will be run Saturday at Saratoga as part of the Belmont July 4th racing festival. Nitrogen is listed as the 4-5 favorite in the field of seven as she tries to win her sixth stakes race in a row this year.

All of the fillies in the Oaks are seeking their first Grade 1 victory. The field combined has 18 victories and includes two who already have earnings of more than $1 million. Five of them are stakes winners, with three in graded stakes. The other two runners are an allowance winner and one who has only a maiden victory.

Head to Head: Deep talent in Saratoga's Belmont Oaks

Here is a full-field analysis for the Belmont Oaks with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. Scheduled as race 11 of 12, post time is set for 6:13 p.m. EDT.

1. Warming, 20-1. Global Campaign – Graham Motion / Manny Franco – 3: 2-0-0 - $83,100. Warming broke her maiden in June 2024 at first asking and then was away from the races for a year. She came back in May to run a close fifth in the Take the A Train stakes at Aqueduct. Last month she won an allowance at Delaware Park with Lasix for the first time against a field of 10 as the odds-on favorite. Toss.

2. Opulent Restraint, 8-1. Dubawi – Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 5: 2-1-0 - $181,000. Opulent Restraint debuted last summer at Saratoga in July and got her maiden win there in September. She came right back to finish her juvenile campaign with a victory in the Chelsey Flower at Aqueduct. She started 2025 by running fourth in the Florida Oaks (G3). She was second by a neck after setting the pace in the Memories of Silver at Aqueduct behind the undefeated filly Laurelin. Use underneath.

3. Totally Justified, 12-1. Justify – Rusty Arnold / Luis Saez – 7: 1-2-1 - $237,880. Totally Justified became a stakes winner in the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga as a maiden in her third start as a 2-year-old. She went from there to finish second by a nose in the Jessamine (G2) after pressing the pace and having the lead in the stretch. The daughter of Justify was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, where she had a troubled trip. This year she was fifth in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland and then was second in the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs, again after having the lead in the stretch. Live long shot.

4. Virgin Colada, 6-1. More Than Ready – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 1-2-1 - $143,000. Virgin Colada was a debut winner for Chad Brown at Saratoga last summer at 9-2 against a field of 10. She was then second in the P.G. Johnson and at Aqueduct in the Miss Grillo (G2). After a winter break she returned with a third in the Memories of Silver when she rallied from last. Irad Ortiz Jr. will take the mount after Flavien Prat opted to ride Fionn for the first time. Use underneath.

5. Fionn, 5-1. Twirling Candy – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 6: 4-1-1 - $349,270. Fionn debuted at Indiana Downs in September and was second at 6-1. She got her maiden breaker in December at Fair Grounds and then went on to take an allowance and the LaCombe Memorial at the New Orleans track. Moving to Kentucky, she was third in the Appalachian (G2) behind Nitrogen and won the Regret (G3) with a late rally from last. Win contender.

6. May Day Ready, 6-1. Tapit – Joseph Lee / Frankie Dettori – 6: 3-1-1 - $1,050,025. May Day Ready won the first three races of her career, beginning at Saratoga in August, and then went on to the $1 million Juvenille Fillies at Kentucky Downs and the Jessamine. In the Breeders’ Cup she was second in that field of 14 when she had to overcome trouble in the first turn. In December they tried a Grade 1 in Japan and finished 13th. May Day Ready made her 2025 debut in the Wonder Again (G3) at Saratoga, finishing third as Nitrogen won the race, which came off the grass and was run on a sloppy and sealed track. Win contender.

7. Nitrogen, 4-5. Medaglia d’Oro – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz – 8: 5-1-2 - $1,146,604. Nitrogen is riding a five-race winning streak that began in January at Gulfstream Park in the Ginger Brew and moved to the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Downs. She won her next two in Kentucky in the Appalachian and the Edgewood (G2). Nitrogen was last seen in the wet Wonder Again, where she was not affected by the sloppy main track at Saratoga as she crushed the field of three by 17 lengths. The one to beat.

Summary: Nitrogen is an odds-on favorite on the morning line for the Belmont Oaks and deservedly so. Her speed figures increased in all eight of her starts, and she has done nothing wrong this year. She has been training at Saratoga since May, including a pair of turf works. Nitrogen is the horse to beat, but as we know winning streaks do not go on forever.

Fionn and May Day Ready are both quality graded-stakes winners, which makes them the main contenders to complete the exacta or possible upsetters if Nitrogen is not at her best Saturday.

Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse does not hesitate to run his horses when they are happy and healthy. Therefore, Nitrogen is the top pick.