Belmont Derby: Odds and analysis for Saratoga turf test

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The Grade 1, $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational will be run Friday at Saratoga as part of the Belmont fourth of July racing festival. The Belmont Derby is the first race in the turf triple in New York for 3-year-olds, which also includes the Saratoga Derby (G1) and the Jockey Club Derby (G3).

A field of eight accepted invitations to run in the 1 1/8-mile stakes race on the turf course at Saratoga. Among the eight are six stakes winners, including one with a Grade 1 victory and with Grade 3 wins. Interestingly, the fourth and 18-place finishers from the Kentucky Derby show up in this race.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Belmont Derby with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. Scheduled as race 9 of 11, post time is set for 5:45 p.m. EDT.

1. Tank, 6-1. Adios Charlie – David Carlos / Luis Saez – 10: 4-2-1 - $240,120. Tank is the most experienced horse in the field and has the most wins. The Florida-bred broke his maiden for a $50,000 tag on the synthetic track at Gulfstream Park. From there he moved onto the turf and made five starts in stakes races in Florida. Tank won his three most recent races beating state-breds at Tampa Downs in March and then twice at Gulfstream, and all of his wins were on the lead or pressing the pace. He will try nine furlongs for the first time. Toss.

2. Early Adopter, 8-1. Lope de Vega – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 6: 2-0-2 - $154,033. Early Adopter was a debut winner at Saratoga in August at 4-1 against a field of nine. He moved right into stakes racing to finish third in both the Pilgrim (G2) and the Central Park at Aqueduct. This year, he was fourth in the Columbia at Tampa in March and won a Keeneland allowance in his only start with Lasix as the favorite against 12 others. Last seen Early Adopter was fifth in the Audubon at Churchill Downs. Toss.

3. Luther, 6-1. Frankel – Charlie Fellowes / Kieran Shoemark – 7: 2-2-2 - $124,782. Luther will ship from Europe for the first time. He broke his maiden in his third try in England at 3-1 against a field of eight and won a stakes at Haydock. He ended his juvenile campaign with a fifth-place finish in a Group 3. Luther raced in France twice and ran fourth in a Group 2 and was overmatched in a Group 1 at Chantilly in a field of 18. Toss.

4. New Century, 4-1. Kameko – Brendan Walsh / Oisin Murphy – 8: 3-1-1 - $405,076. New Century began his career racing in England, where he won his second start and then got a stakes victory in his fourth start. He won the Summer (G1) in September at Woodbine, which got him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where he was fourth. After a winter layoff, New Century was fifth in a Group 3 at Newmarket and then transferred to the U.S. barn of Brendan Walsh. He rallied from the back of a large field to finish a close third in the American Turf (G1) at Churchill. Win contender.

5. Test Score, 7-2. Lookin At Lucky – Graham Motion / Manny Franco – 7: 2-3-1 - $661,525. Test Score got his initial victory in his third start after trying the With Anticipation (G3) as a maiden. He travelled to Del Mar and finished second by a neck against a field of 14 on Breeders’ Cup weekend. This year he won the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland in his second start of 2025 and then was second in the American Turf. Top pick.

6. Final Gambit, 9-2. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat– 6: 2-1-1 - $790,639. Final Gambit began her career racing on the turf, which is not unusual for Brad Cox runners. He broke his maiden on the Tapeta track at Turfway Park and then won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), which put him in the run for the roses. He rallied from last in that field of 19 after a rough start to finish fourth. Final Gambit was last seen in the Matt Winn (G3), where he was fourth the entire trip. Win contender.

7. World Beater, 6-1. Oscar Performance – Riley Mott / Jaime Torres– 6: 2-1-1 - $263,914. World Beater moved to turf racing as a 3-year-old maiden and finished third then second at Gulfstream and Keeneland. He got his first career win at Churchill going the nine-furlong distance and then won the Audubon by a neck. Win contender.

8. Flying Mohawk, 8-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman/ Frankie Dettori – 7: 2-2-0 - $295,800. Flying Mohawk was scratched Thursday after undergoing emergency surgery for colic.

Summary: The Belmont Derby has an interesting mix of horses, with Kentucky Derby runners, Europeans, runners going back to the turf and those seeking their first Grade 1 victory.

The analysis identified a handful of win contenders and ultimately a top pick showing that this turf contest has a competitive field. The Graham Motion runner Test Score comes to Saratoga in the best form of his career after the victory in the Transylvania at Keeneland and a good second in the American Turf. He ran well at five tracks from coast to coast. Test Score is the top pick.