Belmont 2018's Big 3: Baffert, Lukas, Pletcher by the numbers

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Belmont Stakes four times, Todd Pletcher three times and Bob Baffert twice. But each of these trainers -- two in the Hall of Fame, and Pletcher on his way -- have unique histories as far as finding success in the Triple Crown's final leg.

What makes the Belmont Stakes so interesting is the mile-and-a-half distance, farther than any of these horses have ever raced. So the event is an outlier in terms of they way you prepare horses for it and how the race is run. After each renewal trainers have a year, or sometimes more, to reflect on what they’ve learned and how they would do it differently in the future. But this Big 3 -- Lukas, Pletcher and Baffert -- now has enough of a routine to ready their Belmont starters that we can study them. Baffert in the Belmont First, let’s take a look at Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert, who will saddle Justify in his Triple Crown bid in the Belmont.

Belmont Starters, sorted by Odds 9 starts: 2 wins, 3 seconds, 0 thirds

The first thing that pops out looking at Baffert’s Belmont record is that he’s sent five horses at basically odds-on. Other than War Emblem, who stumbled leaving the gate, they all fired. Obviously, American Pharoah and Point Given won, while Silver Charm missed by three-quarters of a length and Real Quiet lost by a nose.

So that gives us our first key stat: Bob Baffert in the Belmont at odds of 3-2 or less: 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds.

While that sounds impressive, we should keep in mind these horses were extremely well bet.  So much so that if you bet $2 to win on each of them, you would have invested $10 and returned $8.20. So, in this small sample, betting on Baffert’s five big Belmont favorites would have been a losing proposition.

Looking at the chart above, the other thing worth noting is that seven of Baffert’s 10 Belmont starters exited the Preakness, and those horses did very well. In fact, if you consider that War Emblem never really got running, and that Cavonnier didn’t finish the race, the other five Preakness-to-Belmont starters all finished in the exacta. So, it’s been a big race or nothing -- but more often a big race.
Finally, note that it's the Baffert horses that didn’t run in the Preakness that didn’t perform as well in the Belmont. None of those three hit the board in the Belmont. Pletcher in the Belmont Next, let’s examine the record of trainer Todd Pletcher, who will send Vino Rosso and Noble Indy against Justify on Saturday. Interestingly, he's a protege of D. Wayne Lukas, who we will take a look at later.

Pletcher has been quite successful with Belmont starters over the years, amassing a record of 3 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds from 24 starters.  

Belmont Starters, sorted by Odds

24 starts: 3 wins, 5 seconds, 3 thirds

After looking at Baffert’s Belmont record and now Pletcher’s, the first thing striking is the odds. None of the Pletcher Belmont starters were favorites. While Baffert’s top five starters in terms of odds were between 0.75-1 and 1.35-1, Pletcher’s top five Belmont starters went off between 4.3-1 and 5.3-1. And with those five starters at much higher odds, Pletcher hit the same record: 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds.

The big difference there is the return on investment on their top five Belmont starters int terms of odds: Baffert: 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds. ROI -18% Pletcher: 5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds. ROI +132%

If you had bet $20 to win on each of these five horses, you would have returned $82 back on a $100 investment backing Baffert's runners, but $232 had you wagered on the Pletcher horses.

Derby to Belmont is the Key for Pletcher Looking at Todd Pletcher’s Belmont starters, the other thing that pops out is the number of starters that skipped the Preakness and went from the Derby or the Kentucky Oaks directly to the Belmont. These starters clearly benefited from the extra rest.

This is particularly important as this is the pattern of how Vino Rosso will enter the Belmont.  

Pletcher's Derby/Oaks-to-Belmont Starters, sorted by finish

14 starts - 3 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third

Pletcher’s Derby weekend to Belmont starters have finished in the exacta half of their 14 tries at an average odds of 8.20-1. Impressive indeed.

The return on investment if you bet to win on all of Pletcher’s Derby weekend-to-Belmont starters? 88.6%. If you bet $20 to win on every one of these runners, you would have invested $280 and collected a cool $528.

Todd Pletcher Derby weekend to Belmont starters:

14 starts - 3 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third, ROI +88.6%

Given Pletcher’s success with Derby-to-Belmont runners, and the fact that Pletcher mentioned Vino Rosso as his Belmont horse earlier in the year, we have to conclude that Vino Rosso is very well intended in the Belmont. By that I mean Vino Rosso had enough Derby excuses that he could have run back in the Preakness. But the larger goal was the Belmont, so Vino Rosso was given extra rest to be at his best for the mile and a half test. Lukas in the Belmont Finally, let’s have a look at veteran trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has four Belmont wins to his credit. In this Belmont, he sends out Bravazo, who was a fast-closing second to Justify in the Preakness.

Belmont Starters since 1990, sorted by odds

20 starts - 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third

Looking at the long history of Belmont starters for Lukas in the last 28 years, a few things stand out: • Lukas has saddled a lot of longshots in the Belmont, with 11 of these 20 starters going off at 11-1 or higher • Three of his four lowest-odds starters have won. The only one that did not win was Charismatic, who was tragically injured in the stretch while leading the 1999 Belmont.   • So many of the Lukas starters went from the Preakness to the Belmont in only 21 days.

If we peel back the longshots, and look at the more well-intended Belmont starters, Lukas has saddled 9 horses since 1990 at odds of 10-1 or less. Their combined:

Lukas Belmont starters at 10-1 or less (since 1990)

9 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third, ROI +52.2%

Now, you might think we’ve cherry-picked those stats and ignored his other 11 longshots during this era. But keep in mind his longshots do include Commendable, who surprised the 2000 Belmont at odds of 18.80-1.

It is interesting to see that although training patterns have changed over years, and more conditioners are favoring the Pletcher-type layoffs giving horses more rest before big races, Lukas hasn’t changed his style.  

And while it’s easy to dismiss Lukas, as the last of his four Belmont winners was 18 years ago, we should keep in mind he ran a strong second with Oxbow in 2013 at 10-1. In a very solid Belmont field that year that included the 1-2-3 Kentucky Derby finishers, it was only Todd Pletcher’s Palace Malice who finished in front of Oxbow. Palace Malice rebounded strongly from a 12th-place finish in the Derby to overtake Oxbow on the Belmont turn and go on to win by 3 ¼ lengths. Oxbow (by Awesome Again, the sire of Bravazo) didn’t quit at all and finished nearly two lengths clear of Kentucky Derby winner Orb and 11 others in the 14-horse field.

Bravazo enters the Belmont under very similar circumstances as Oxbow.