Belmont 2018 odds: Expert updates early morning line

Horse Racing Nation co-founder Mark Midland — who in 1999 created Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager — set Justify at 4-5 in his projected look at morning line odds released Saturday.

“Looking at the last two Triple Crown attempts,” Midland said, “American Pharoah went off at 0.75-1 against a softer field and California Chrome was 0.85-1 against a deeper and more talented field.

“So a 4-5 morning line for Justify falls right in between the last two dual classic winners.”

An updated look at the early line follows the likely additions of Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy, Bob Baffert-trained Restoring Hope and Free Drop Billy from the Dale Romans barn to the Belmont’s prospective field.

As of Saturday, Horse Racing Nation considers 10 horses probable to run in the final leg of the Triple Crown series. Irish-trained Bandua is possible and not yet a candidate for the early line.

While the favorite is established, the debate continues for estimating the public’s second betting choice. Midland pushed Preakness Stakes runner-up Bravazo from 7-2 in the first edition of his odds to 5-1 now, a tick ahead of Hofburg at 6-1.

“There’s plenty of excitement about Hofburg, so we set him just behind Bravazo, who came within a diminishing half length of Justify in the Preakness,” Midland said.

Other top choices are Vino Rosso (10-1) and Tenfold (15-1) before the second half of the field comes in at 20-1 and above.

For comparison’s sake, the latest Wynn Las Vegas odds for the Belmont Stakes are provided below. While those prices a reflection of money taken by the race and sports book, here we have attempted to replicate the anticipated morning line.