Beholder Mile fair odds: Here's an alternative to Adare Manor
Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is so prolific in Grade 1 races in California that in the last five years, his 31 victories in such races is more than the next three trainers combined.
The challenge for bettors is that even though Baffert has the best win percentage, 23.6 percent, of all trainers with at least eight Grade 1 starts in that period, he is incredibly overbet, as his flat-bet loss despite 31 wins from 131 attempts is -31.9 percent.
A similar story looks to be playing out in the Beholder Mile (G1) on Saturday at Santa Anita, where Baffert will saddle likely favorite Adare Manor in her 5-year-old debut and first start since having a five-race win streak snapped in last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Adare Manor is the lone Grade 1 winner in the race, and as if her class weren't enough to attract money, Baffert is coming off sweeping both Grade 1 races at Santa Anita last week plus the San Felipe (G2) Triple Crown prep.
That all adds up to her taking more money than she should, but we only need to look directly to her outside for the alternative, as another 5-year-old making her seasonal debut, no. 3 Green Up, interests me as the second choice.
Like Adare Manor, Green Up also made her last start as a 4-year-old the first weekend of November. But on the day that Adare Manor finished seventh in the Distaff, beaten three lengths by eventual champion Idiomatic, Green Up was winning the Pumpkin Pie Stakes at Aqueduct. It was her third consecutive listed stakes victory with a couple graded stakes losses sandwiched between. Shipping west for a Grade 1 try is a tall order, but the price will be right to take a shot.
No. 4 Desert Dawn, no. 5 Interstatedaydream and no. 6 Sweet Azteca are on the second tier of contenders behind Adare Manor and Green Up, and I prefer Desert Dawn, who should sit behind the top two choices while shortening up from recent trips.
Wagering-wise, I expect Green Up to be worth a win bet and Desert Dawn to play with her. If Desert Dawn is the fifth choice, she also might offer some value with the favorite even.