Battaglia fair odds: Favorite is vulnerable in mandatory payout
As if Kentucky Derby 2024 points and a full field were not enough to make the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on Saturday night at Turfway Park exciting, the 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds is also an integral part of the mandatory payout Pick 6.
Normally a 20-cent jackpot bet, Turfway will pay its Pick 6 pool to whomever picks the most winners Saturday. The Battaglia goes as the sixth of nine races and, thus, the third leg of the Pick 6 that begins in race 4. Finding a winner could be particularly lucrative, because the 5-2 morning-line favorite Epic Ride is a likely underlay based on my fair odds of 4-1.
Epic Ride certainly has impressed in all three career starts, narrowly missing on debut before breaking his maiden and then annexing the Leonatus Stakes by a combined nine lengths. Here’s the rub, though. Based on the Ragozin Sheets, the Leonatus score was a big step back off the fast maiden race. As the favorite Epic Ride is a tough bet to return to his best while carrying the most weight and is more likely to regress again, which definitely makes him a difficult proposition to win this race.
Bolt At Midnight is intriguing off his most recent, which was the fastest race anyone put together last out, but is definitely an outlier among all his past performances. No guarantees he is able to repeat that performance here, but he’s drawn well, the barn is hot, and the price is right because of Epic Ride.
After those two it’s a steep drop to the next set of contenders. Of the two horses I have as 8-1 on my fair-odds line, Break Out is more likely to offer value than Gettysburg Address. Break Out could have a clear run at the leaders, and his lone synthetic effort came against a slow pace on a speed-favoring Gulfstream strip.
In the Pick 6, I’d lean on Bolt At Midnight with Break Out being my lone backup.
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