Bashford Manor fair odds: Best bet begins mandatory Pick 6

Assuming no jackpot pays on Friday or Saturday, the pool for the mandatory payout Pick 6 on Sunday, closing day at Churchill Downs, could approach $4 million. That would be a record for a 20-cent minimum Pick 6 in Kentucky.

When it comes to my strategy for this bet, you will "know me early" as I plan to single Saul Elliott in the Bashford Manor Stakes that kicks off the sequence. Also included in this challenging pick 6 are four other stakes leading into a maiden special weight nightcap.

Why Saul Elliott? His debut win on May 25 at Santa Anita is the best race any of these horses have run, and there is no reason to think that trainer Doug O'Neill will not have this one primed for a top effort given the wealth of options for a California-bred juvenile with the Del Mar summer meeting about to start.

Bet down to 3-2 odds against seven others in his debut, Saul Elliott tracked the speed from the outside post 8 and drew off with ease to win by 2 1/4 lengths. It was another 2 1/4 lengths back to third and six lengths back to fourth. The jump to six furlongs from 4 1/2 is not nothing, but the dam having produced four other winners all as 2-year-olds give confidence in this one's percocity. 

Another reason for the bullish single is that it's hard to separate the others. Any back up plays will be price sensitive. Based on the morning line, Spice Runner is tough to like. The number power just isn't there to warrant favortism, though obviously a 2 1/4-length win at 2-5 odds and Jose Ortiz retaining the mount for hall of fame trainer Steve Asmussen after that win will attract attention. I just think Saul Elliott is faster.

Comport is my most likely backup though, as that was a strong debut from him. Should Romeo scratch for whatever reason, Comport definitely moves up. To a lesser extent the reverse is true as well.

But make no mistake: Saul Elliott is the horse I am most excited about here.