Bagboss tops 5 picks for Wednesday's card at Churchill Downs
Best Bet: Bagboss (Race 7)
Best Value Bet: Cryo (Race 6)
There is rain in the forecast throughout Kentucky Derby week in Louisville, Ky., but Wednesday should see relatively dry conditions. Here is how we will attack Churchill’s 10-race program.
Race 1
#6 Cycologist (3-1) dropped back then re-rallied in a similar spot at Oaklawn Park when last seen – a similar effort and a clean trip could get the job done. #4 Roses for Ashley (6-1) gets the “kitchen sink treatment” from owner and trainer Anthony Quartarolo here, as she drops in class, switches from turf to dirt, adds Lasix and blinkers, and sheds weight with apprentice Rene Diaz. She’s a threat for at least a share. #1 Hannah’s Heaven (5-2, morning-line favorite) tries a new low and cuts back in distance but has yet to hit the board in her six-start career.
How I’d Bet It (based on $100 budget):
$6 exacta 6/1,4, $4 win 4
Race 3
#3 Desoto’s War (5-2, morning-line favorite) goes first off the re-claim for Grant Forster (16 percent) following a solid winter campaign at the Fair Grounds. He might have been in the exacta in all four starts if he did not break through the gate two-back. The speed figures say Desoto’s War is the one to beat. #4 Yes Sir Robert (3-1) had a chance at the victory at this level at Keeneland last time out but hung late in second – shedding a 1/16th may enhance his closing kick. #6 Z U At the Races (8-1) has a respectable 10: 2-1-3 record at this surface and distance.
How I’d Bet It:
$10 exacta 3/4, $5 exacta 3/6, $5 exacta 4/3
Race 4
#7 Edge of Glory (2-1, morning-line favorite) showed good early foot before fading and splitting the field in the slop at Keeneland last time out. A repeat of that speed figure on fast dirt while dropping in class would make him tough to beat under Luis Saez. #1 Jonas’ Dream (5-2) is working well for his unveiling, but trainer Brad Cox wins at just 16 percent when debuting in maiden claiming heats. The son of Liam’s Map could be any kind. #5 C J All the Way (7-2) flashes a bullet work over this course for his “re-debut” here – he drops in class, switches from turf to dirt, and adds Lasix for Mark Casse.
How I’d Bet It:
$10 exacta 7/1, $6 exacta 7/5, $6 exacta 1/7
Race 6
#6 Cryo (3-1) wisely heads down the class ladder and will cut back for his second start of the form cycle. Trainer William Morey wins at a 28-percent clip going second off the bench. #5 Extreme (5-2, morning-line favorite) has demonstrated a propensity to settle for minor awards (12: 1-4-4 career record), so he’s tough to trust on top. However, he fits on class and speed figures. #2 Silk Trade (3-1) beat maiden special weights at Prairie Meadows last May before closing for second against allowance foes at Hawthorne this April. He intrigues trying his hand against presumably tougher foes despite the nominal class drop as he lures James Graham.
How I’d Bet It:
$8 exacta 6/2,5, $4 exacta 2,5/6
Race 7
#6 Bagboss (7-5, morning-line favorite) beat #5 Milliken (8-5) for second by a neck when they met in a similar spot at Keeneland last month. The former has trained better in the interim and keeps world-class pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. Bagboss also holds a win over this course, while Milliken was third in his lone try at Churchill. Milliken should run no worse than second unless he regresses significantly in the speed figure department. #3 Run Run Rapidash (12-1) and #7 Smokin Willie (6-1) should be included in any trifecta plays; the former was fourth behind the top two choices in that same race at Keeneland, which was his dirt debut. The latter may improve in his third career start for powerhouse connections in jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Steve Asmussen.
How I’d Bet It:
$8 trifecta 6/5/3,7, $1 trifecta 5/6/3,7