Baffert is a big reason favorites are dominating at Santa Anita
As many handicappers have noticed, small field sizes and an extremely high percentage of winning favorites have become an undesirable normality at Santa Anita Park this meet.
Just last week (Jan. 31-Feb. 6), favorites won 73 percent of dirt races and the average field size was the lowest of any track across the country at 6.13. It's been hard for handicappers to avoid chalk.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert dominates this circuit, and both bettors and horsemen know it, which contributes to the high percentage of winning favorites and low field size.
So far this meeting, which began Dec. 26, Baffert has won 20 of 49 starts to rank first in wins among trainers. When you consider that 20 of those wins have come from only 32 races, the stat is even more impressive.
Last weekend, during that historic week of 73 percent winning favorites on the dirt at Santa Anita, Baffert won with all three of the favorites he started: Adare Manor in the Las Virgenes (G3) at 2-5, Messier in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at 3-5, and Shaaz via disqualification in an allowance at 3-10.
Looking at the current Santa Anita meet as whole, 3.8 percent of all starters are Baffert-trained horses. Yet, he has won 10.5 percent of all races, and his runners make a major impact on winning favorite statistics overall.
In races without Baffert, favorites win 43 percent of the time. The percentage balloons to 65 percent with him involved.
The impact of Baffert-trained horses taking money (and more important to bettors – him delivering) stretches beyond Santa Anita. In graded-stakes races nationally since Dec. 26, favorites won 33 percent of the time when no Baffert runners were present. Favorites won 60 percent of the time when Baffert had a horse in a race.
Do these numbers hurt gamblers? As always, it depends. The most common reaction might be that the races are less attractive to handicap. But from a wagering standpoint, most people bet chalk (that's how they become the chalk), and Baffert's HRN Impact number with favorites ranks second among all U.S. trainers.