Rebel odds & analysis: 3-for-3 Newgrange leads field of 11

The Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes is the third stop on the Oaklawn Park road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby. A field of 11 will race 1 1/16 miles, and the top four finishers, if eligible, will earn a share of 50-20-10-5 Derby qualifying points.

Bob Baffert has won the Rebel eight times, all since 2010, including the last two editions with Nadal in 2020 and Concert Tour last year. Among those Rebel winners for Baffert was one Kentucky Derby winner, 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah.

This year Baffert will be represented by Newgrange, who is likely to be a heavy favorite based on his unbeaten record in three starts. Since Baffert is currently banned from racing at Churchill Downs, Newgrange once again will be ineligible to win qualifying points for the Run for the Roses.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Rebel, listing odds provided by Horse Racing Nation, sires, trainers, jockeys, career records and earnings. The Rebel is carded as race 11 of 12 with post time scheduled for 6:52 p.m. EST.

1. Kavod (20-1 – Lea – Chris Hartman / Francisco Arrieta – 11: 3-1-0 - $293,000) Kavod leads this field in racing experience with 11 starts, nine as a 2-year-old and two this year. He was a very early debut winner in April at Belmont Park and finished second in the Tremont in his next race. After four unsuccessful starts in graded stakes, Kavod won a $50,000 claiming race at Churchill Downs in November and was taken by Hartman. He came right back to win the Advent at Oaklawn, a six-furlong stakes for his new trainer. In two starts this year on the Kentucky Derby trail, he was fourth in the Smarty Jones and the Southwest (G3) after being part of the early pace in both. Toss.

2. Newgrange (5-2 – Violence – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 3: 3-0-0 - $552,000) Newgrange brings a 3-for-3 record to the Rebel as Baffert tries to win the race yet again. After a debut maiden score at Del Mar in November, Newgrange won a pair of Kentucky Derby preps, although his trainer is currently banned from racing at Churchill Downs. The son of Violence would have had 20 Derby points from his victories in the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita and the Southwest at Oaklawn. In the Southwest he sat a stalking trip to beat several other 3-year-olds who are in the Rebel. Newgrange was a $20,000 supplemental nomination to the Rebel. The likely winner.

3. Cairama (20-1 – Cairo Prince – Steve Asmussen / Geovanni Franco – 4: 1-0-1 - $71,125) Cairama won his first career start in September at Belmont with a front-end sprinting effort. From there he was fifth in the Nashua (G3), third in the Advent and sixth in the Smarty Jones. Aside from his first race, Cairama has broken from the gate poorly, causing him to have too much ground to make up against a quality field. Toss.

4. Un Ojo (15-1 – Laoban – Ricky Courville / Ramon Vasquez – 5: 1-2-0 - $176,321) This New York-bred began his career at Keeneland in October but moved to Delta Downs to break his maiden and then was fourth in a stakes race. He came north to run second in a lucrative New York Stallion Series race, beaten by only a neck going seven furlongs. Then in the nine-furlong Withers (G3) he rallied from last to get the place position behind the talented Chad Brown runner Early Voting. Live long shot.

5. Texas Red Hot (20-1 – Texas Red – Randy Morse / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 2-1-0 - $133,670) Texas Red Hot was second in his debut at Churchill in June and then got his maiden breaker at Ellis Park the following month. He was fourth in the Ellis Park Juvenile. He won an allowance with a late rally going a mile at Churchill but was never a factor in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The Rebel is a tough spot for Texas Red Hot to make his first start of the year. Toss.

6. Stellar Tap (12-1 – Tapit – Steve Asmussen / Cristian Torres – 4: 1-0-1 - $71,292) Stellar Tap romped by more than five lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. He stretched out to two turns in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill, finishing fifth, and then the Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, where he pressed the pace and then faded out of contention. Stellar Tap was third in a Fair Grounds allowance in his first start of 2022. Not sure why to expect better results in this graded-stakes race. Toss.

7. Ben Diesel (10-1 – Will Take Charge – Dallas Stewart / Jon Court – 4: 1-0-1 - $164,110) Ben Diesel will continue on the Kentucky Derby trail with his third start in the Oaklawn Park prep races. Most recently he was third in the Southwest (G3), which was a big improvement over his seventh in the Smarty Jones. He was well bet in those two races but is likely to come with higher odds in the Rebel. Racing from the barn of Stewart makes it hard to know what expect from this son of Rebel winner Will Take Charge. Use underneath.

8. Chasing Time (7-2 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 2-2-0 - $179,460) Of the three horses entered in the Rebel from the Asmussen barn, Chasing Time looks like the top contender. It took him three starts to figure things out as he broke his maiden at Churchill in November with a closing move going seven furlongs. Chasing Time was a heavily bet favorite in all five starts, including a pair of allowance races in his two most recent races. He won by nearly eight lengths going a mile at Oaklawn after pressing the pace. Use underneath.

9. Barber Road (6-1 – Race Day – John Ortiz / Reylu Gutierrez – 6: 2-3-0 - $300,720) Barber Road has piled up three second-place finishes in a row, with the two most recent coming in Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. He earned eight qualifying points this year when he raced from off the pace in the Smarty Jones and then the Southwest (G3). He will face several horses from those races again in the Rebel, including the winners in Dash Attack and Newgrange. Use underneath.

10. Ethereal Road (8-1 – Quality Road – Wayne Lukas / Luis Contreras – 4: 1-0-1 - $63,545) Hall of Fame trainer Lukas is back looking for his third victory in the Rebel having won most recently in 2013 with Will Take Charge. Ethereal Road broke his maiden at Oaklawn last month in his fourth career start with a last-to-first rally at odds of 19-1. He has a tendency to break slowly from the gate, which will not help his chances in this Grade 2. Toss.

11. Dash Attack (10-1 – Munnings – Kenny McPeek / David Cohen – 3: 2-0-0 - $227,940) Dash Attack began his career with a pair of victories at Oaklawn. In December it was a maiden score going a mile, and then the following month he won the Smarty Jones on a sloppy track when he blew by the field with a late rally to prevail by two lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek brought him back in four weeks in the Southwest, where he raced on a dry and fast track for the first time and finished fifth. The connections might be hoping that it rains at Oaklawn on Saturday. Win contender.

Summary: Newgrange is the likeliest of winners in the Rebel as Baffert looks for another big payday from the $1 million purse. Is there a way to bet the Rebel when Newgrange is expected to be a favorite with short odds by the time the gates open?

There might be some value in the exacta pool if you play Newgrange with horses with higher odds in this field of 11. Un Ojo and Dash Attack fit the bill as the live long shots, while Ben Diesel, Barber Road and Chasing Time are more obvious exacta possibilities.