Baffert & Walsh: Why do Kentucky Oaks preps have small fields?

It irreverently was dubbed the California rule. When Churchill Downs added a field-size minimum last year to its Kentucky Derby qualifying system, it led to points reductions for two underfilled Santa Anita preps. It nearly cost Baeza a chance to finish third in the Derby.

Little did anyone know that the new rule would have a greater impact on the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

Program favorite Explora will be scratched from Friday’s Fantasy Stakes (G2) because trainer Bob Baffert said she developed a fever after being flown from California to Arkansas this week. That leaves only five fillies to line up for the race at Oaklawn.

Baffert: Explora has fever, will miss Fantasy.

Since it will have fewer than six fillies in the gate, the Fantasy will be the third Oaks prep to have its points reduced this year. It also will be the seventh such reduction since last winter, when Churchill Downs established field-size minimums for full rewards out of 50- and 100-point Derby and Oaks qualifiers.

“You know everyone wants to have a nice Derby horse,” said trainer Brendan Walsh, who has an Oaks berth clinched for Bella Ballerina. “I think maybe people look at the Derby more than the Oaks, don’t they?”

Before the Fantasy, the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct and the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs had their points cut 25% this season. Last year the qualifying benefits were slashed by one-quarter for the five-horse Davona Dale (G2) and Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and by one-half for the four-horse Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Santa Ysabel (G3).

The Fantasy could not attract a full field even though Oaklawn increased the purse from $750,000 to $1 million. Instead of money, it might have been a simple case of avoiding Explora when entries were taken Friday.

“People are just sort of using analytics,” Baffert said. “Where can they go to have a better spot? Maybe that’s it. A lot of guys, they duck certain horses. All of a sudden, a horse like Explora scratches. ... I think when you nominate horses, it should be a free nomination instead of just paying. You’d have a lot more nominations than people would think.”

Counting this weekend, the average field size for Kentucky Oaks points preps this season is 6.87, a 7% drop from last year. It is the lowest since there were only 6.77 per race coming out of COVID five years ago. There is the usual suspect of the eroding North America foal crop. The Jockey Club said it will end up being about 17,300 last year, a drop of 3% from 2024 and more than half since 2005.

“The Derby preps are in similar circumstances, too,” Walsh said.

Although it is true that fields for Derby points races are 11% smaller than they were in 2021-22, the current 8.44 average still is 23% higher than it is for Oaks preps.

The spring of 2021 became a flashpoint when the contract ran out on Tex Sutton Equine Air Transportation’s deal to fly Air Horse One. Without a dedicated airplane to ship Thoroughbreds, owners and trainers have had to use FedEx flights, which do not prioritize horses.

“I think the Tex Sutton situation has been drastic,” Baffert said. “To me that’s been big. The industry won’t address it. We’ve tried and tried, and we’ve fallen, but they don’t want to do anything about it. With Tex Sutton you’d send your horse, your grooms, your everybody. Now with FedEx you go, and you wait. You don’t know when you’re going to take off. It takes 14, sometimes 15 hours to get your horse (shipped). That’s long on a horse.”

Walsh agreed.

“For people in Florida going to the more northern tracks, it’s like going to California, pretty much,” he said. “It’d be just as easy to go to California.”

Walsh also said prep races are scheduled too often on top of one another now.

“I don’t know why the racetracks don’t get together and put these races on different days,” he said. “Everyone’s going to the same Derby and Oaks prep on the same day, and then riders are only available at certain tracks. People tend to favor one or the other, and that’s maybe another reason why you end up with light fields at certain tracks.”

This season the 33 Oaks preps are scheduled on 27 calendar dates. The 36 Derby points races are compressed into 24 dates.

For his part, trainer Mark Casse said he plans to have all three of his entrants for the Fantasy go forward Friday, including new program favorite Counting Stars, third choice Search Party and long shot Empath.

“I was kind of surprised,” Casse said about the small field. “It’s interesting that a couple of those fillies based at Oaklawn ended up going to New Orleans (last week). I was kind of surprised by that, but I’m not complaining.”

Casse clearly was not ducking Explora, who already clinched her place in the Kentucky Oaks. His filly Counting Stars finished second to Explora on March 1 in the Honeybee (G3), losing by three-quarters of a length.

“If Counting Stars shows up, she’s going to be tough if she runs good,” Casse said. “The problem is she doesn’t always show up. But she’s trained really well up to this race, so I would expect her to.”

Casse meant show up in the figurative sense, of course. Getting fillies to show up in the entry boxes for Oaks preps seems to be half the battle for racing secretaries and stakes coordinators.

Kenny McPeek will saddle Taken by the Wind in the Fantasy on Friday. The two-time stakes winner suffered her first loss in the Honeybee, finishing an empty eighth. McPeek said she had the thumps, which is a horse’s version of hiccups.

“Those are rare,” he said. “I think that’s something that’s easily rectified. I’ve never seen a horse do it two races in a row.”

McPeek said he might have been the wrong person to ask about thin fields in Kentucky Oaks preps.

“We’re bouncing between Louisiana and Arkansas mostly this winter, and I’ve run in pretty much all of them,” he said. “I actually took an a-other-than filly (Maximum Offer) and ran (fifth) in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) last weekend.”

Aside from Walsh’s thought that the Derby might be a more attractive goal, Casse and McPeek were at a loss to explain why Oaks preps are not filling.

“I don’t have any theories on it,” Casse said.

“I can’t explain it,” McPeek said. “We just try to worry about it one horse at a time.”