BC Mile analysis: No true standout makes it a challenge

Fourteen horses will compete in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile on Nov. 7 at Keeneland. With no true standout in the race, it is quite a handicapping challenge.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the pace is neutral. But even without their graphic, there are no crazy speed types wanting to blitz the field early. The only chance for fast fractions is if Halladay and Factor This duel, which is not certain. 

The Mile is carded as Race 9 with a post time of 3:15 p.m. EST. 

1. Circus Maximus, 12-1 (Galileo – Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore – 16: 5-2-3 - $1,541,584): Last year, Circus Maximum made a mild closing bid for fourth in this race, losing by 2 3/4 lengths to Uni. He began this year with a win in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) and second in the Sussex Stakes (G1). In his next two starts, though, he went flat with non-threatening third-place finishes in the Prix du Haras de Fresnay (G1) and Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1). In his most recent start, Circus Maximus went even further south with a 10th in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) at Ascot. Based on his disappointing recent form, he is hard to recommend on top. But a return to his best efforts puts him in the superfecta. Use underneath.

2. Kameko, 6-1 (Kitten’s Joy – Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy – 9: 4-2-0 - $510,817): The overseas markets made this invader the lukewarm favorite at odds ranging from 7-2 to 9-2. In his most recent start, he won the Joel Stakes (G2) at Newmarket by half a length over Regal Reality. Previously, Regal Reality was a distant third in the Celebration Mile Stakes (G2), beaten by 6 1/4 lengths. As for Kameko, he ran fourth three straight times in the Investec Derby (G1), Sussex Stakes (G1) and Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) before picking up his win in the Joel. The trouble toward the end of his Sussex effort is notable, as he had no room to tip out or shoot through. He is the best of the Euros in this race, but not exactly a monster with that string of fourth-place finishes. Use underneath.

3. Lope Y Fernandez, 30-1 (Lope De Vega – Aidan O’Brien/Lanfranco Dettori – 11: 2-2-3 - $225,206): His last two races in Europe show seventh-place finishes in the Sprint Cup (G1) and British Champions Sprint Stakes (G1). Granted, he was running against Group 1-level horses in both of those races. Four starts ago, Lope Y Fernandez ran second by 3/4 of a length to Pinatubo, a European star, in the Prix Jean Prat (G1). But another problem is the one-mile distance. In his lone attempt at one mile, he was third by 2 1/2 lengths in the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) to Siskin, who is also in this race. The troubling part is that he made a big outside move to briefly take the lead before hitting a wall in mid-stretch. From a visual standpoint, it looks like he wants to cut back to seven furlongs or less. Toss.

4. Siskin, 15-1 (First Defence – Ger Lyons/Colin Keane – 7: 5-0-1 - $546,021):. After capturing the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) in June, Siskin ran third in the Sussex Stakes (G1), only half a length behind Circus Maximus in second. After that race, Siskin was a distant fourth in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1), losing by 8 3/4 lengths to Persian King, with Circus Maximus beating him again for third place by a length. As with many races containing a large number of Euros, it is partially a guess on how to analyze and use them because Americans do not follow their racing as closely. Based on his Prix du Moulin effort, he is not a win contender. But he might find a way to hit the board at a price with his 2,000 Guineas form. Use underneath.

5. Digital Age, 8-1 (Invincible Spirit – Chad Brown/Javier Castellano – 11: 5-2-0 - $1,234,660): Digital Age’s 2020 campaign has been a consistent one with two wins in three starts. The one loss came in his return race on June 20, where he was second by half a length to Breaking the Rules in a Belmont optional claimer. After that, he won an optional claimer at Saratoga before taking the Turf Classic (G1) on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. In that race, he ran down a nice runner in Factor This, who has developed into a win machine for trainer Brad Cox. Factor This is in this race as well, setting up a possible rematch if Factor This leads them into the stretch and Digital Age winds up his rally and takes aim. As with most closers, traffic is a concern for this 4-year-old colt, but he is nimble enough. If Digital Age finds a path, he will give a nice turn foot and contend for the win. Win contender. 

6. Safe Voyage, 15-1 (Fast Company – John Quinn/Jason Hart – 29: 12-2-4 - $684,963): His last three starts include a close third-place finish by a neck in the Prix de la Foret (G1) to One Master and a 3 1/2-length win over that same foe in the City of York Stakes (G2). In the City of York, he took advantage of a paceless scenario. For those who do not remember, One Master rallied for a fifth-place finish in the 2018 edition of this race. Besides that, One Master is a consistent mare in Europe but not one that would scare anyone. Speaking of age, Safe Voyage is a 7-year-old gelding himself facing young and talented horses in this spot. He is still in good form, but at his age, the feeling is that he will not explode with a career best effort now. It makes more sense to side with a younger horse that is peaking. Toss.

7. Casa Creed, 20-1 (Jimmy Creed – William Mott/Junior Alvarado – 15: 3-2-3 - $460,508): Casa Creed set the pace in the local Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) before fading to fourth. From glancing at the chart, closers took up the 1-2 spots of the Turf Mile even though the raw fractions appear mild. It is possible that opening fractions of 23.44 and 47.39 were faster numbers than they appear, even if TimeformUS does not mark them in red. Notice the First Lady Stakes (G1) went in similar fractions earlier in the card, yet the stalking Uni and Beau Recall went past a tired Newspaperofrecord late. The fact that Casa Creed lacks a win this year is a concern as well. He did run a good third in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) to a loose Halladay, but he was also seventh in the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) in June. In the Breeders’ Cup, he is likely overmatched. Toss.

8. March to the Arch, 15-1 (Arch – Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione – 24: 7-3-3 - $849,705): This closer loves Woodbine. Using his closing tactics, he won the King Edward Stakes (G2) and ran a closing second in the Woodbine Mile (G1), one length behind Starship Jubilee. With that said, he lost to a 7-year-old mare who is not even the best in her division. His two previous races before the Woodbine efforts were terrible as well. He was a non-threatening sixth in the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) behind the winner Factor This, and a dismal 12th in the Shoemaker Mile (G1). He feels a step below this level, even with the runner-up in the Woodbine Mile. Toss.

9. One Master, 12-1 (Fastnet Rock – William Haggas/Pierre-Charles Boudot – 23: 7-4-4 - $1,212,656): This 6-year-old mare has had a nice career. Two years ago, she ran a closing fifth in this race, losing by one length to the winner Expert Eye. That felt like one of the weaker editions of the Mile, though, especially with the runner-up Catapult not winning a single race afterward and Analyze It running a dismal eighth in the recent Shadwell Turf Mile. In recent times, One Master was third in the British Champions Sprint Stakes (G1) and took the Prix de la Foret (G1). Against this group, she is a pass. She already did not hit the board in the 2018 Mile, and this is a stronger group of Mile contenders. Toss.

10. Halladay, 12-1 (War Front – Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez – 14: 6-2-4 - $517,485): This is an interesting situation for the expected pacesetter. On the one hand, he figures to hit the front and set reasonable fractions, perhaps on the moderately fast side. However, Factor This owns enough speed to either press or track him second, putting him within striking distance on the far turn. In the Fourstardave (G1), Halladay only had to put away the weak Emmaus before the mild threat of Got Stormy came into the picture. He did well to hold on by 1 1/4 lengths, but he was supposed to win with that easy trip and faces better horses overall now. The right time to cash in on Halladay was last time. Even if Factor This does not win, he should weaken Halladay enough to the point where a stalker or closer comes in. Toss.

11. Ivar, 4-1 (Agnes Gold – Paulo Lobo/Joseph Talamo – 7: 5-0-1 - $579,413): The Brazilian-bred made a nice rally from last to pick up the Shadwell Turf Mile. With that said, he did not exactly beat win machines in the runner-up Raging Bull and third-place Without Parole. The fourth-place Casa Creed does not enhance the quality of that win either. Similar to Halladay, last time was the right time to play this horse at 14-1. Now, he is 4-1 on the ML and a tough sell. Toss.

12. Uni, 5-1 (More Than Ready – Chad Brown/Joel Rosario – 21: 11-3-4 - $2,590,880): Uni finally won this year with a closing move in the local First Lady Stakes (G1). Oddly, her stablemate Newspaperofrecord had nothing left despite chasing moderate fractions up front and leading into the stretch. Also, Uni looks slower overall this year. She ran seventh in the Fourstardave behind Halladay. To start off the campaign, Uni also ran a non-threatening third in the Just a Game Stakes (G1), 3 1/2 lengths behind Newspaperofrecord. She always fired off the layoff before, but not this time. In all likelihood, she is one step below her razor sharp form last year. For those who want to throw her into the bottom slots, she is usable as a horse that figures to make a mild move late, but not as a win contender. Use underneath.

13. Factor This, 8-1 (The Factor – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 32: 12-4-4 - $1,242,780): This 5-year-old horse is at the peak of his career. For those who still use speed figures in turf races, he shows a lofty 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Dinner Party Stakes (G2) win and 128 for his runner-up in the Turf Classic (G1). He set a fast pace in the Turf Classic too after pressure from True Valour. Factor This owns the kind of speed to set fast fractions in a nine-furlong race. At one mile, though, it is not certain whether he contests the pace with Halladay or gives him a length or two. If he tries to sit off Halladay through mild fractions, the strategy can work as it puts Factor This in striking position on the turn. He does not necessarily need the outright lead to win, at least not based on earlier races in his career. His overall form this year is ultra-consistent with five wins in seven starts, along with one second and one third. He should give the best effort of his career this week. The only concern is the wide position, but that is a minor problem with his speed. The pick.

14. Raging Bull, TBA (Dark Angel – Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz – 16: 6-3-3 - $1,296,750): The campaign for Raging Bull began in a promising manner with the Shoemaker Mile (G1) victory. But then he went back to cashing underneath checks only with a third-place finish in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) and second in the Shadwell Turf Mile. In between those starts, he also ran fifth in the Fourstardave behind Halladay. Post 14 is not great, but as a closer it might not make a huge difference. If there is any kind of pace, he figures to make his usual rally that will come up short. Superfecta players must throw him into the bottom slots. Use underneath.

Also Eligible

15. Order of Australia, 30-1 (Australia – Aidan O’Brien/Christophe Soumillon – 7: 2-0-1 - $39,846): Losing by 47 3/4 lengths in his most recent start overseas is not a great sign. His lone two wins in seven starts came in listed stakes races. Sometimes it feels like Aidan O’Brien enters any random B or C horse in his barn in these Breeders’ Cup races. If he somehow draws in, he is overmatched. Toss.

Conclusion:

Factor This is preferable because of his early position. If he can avoid going wide on the first turn, he is going to sit about a half length to a length off Halladay. Neither of them are uncontrollable speed horses, which means a moderate pace scenario.

If the pace does collapse, then Digital Age will make his usual sharp move if he can navigate his way through traffic and tip out like he did in the Turf Classic. Cutting back to one mile, his late move should prove even better than before.

Give them both serious consideration in multi-race wagers.

Depending on one horse for a Win bet or constructing a trifecta ticket in this race is tough because of the amount of horses lined up. It is preferable to go horizontal and attack this race with a double or pick 3, if not a longer multi-race wager.