BC Filly & Mare Sprint: Odds and analysis

With Bellafina’s defection, the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Keeneland on Nov. 7 contains one less speed horse compared with the pre-entries list. But the race is still fast, with three need-the-lead runners — Serengeti Empress, Gamine and Venetian Harbor — setting the race up for a stalker or closer.

For bettors, this sets up the opportunity to play a closer at a nice price. On paper, two interesting closers own the ability to win with the right pace.

The Filly & Mare Sprint is carded as Race 4 with a post time of 12:02 p.m. EST. 

1. Speech, 6-1 (Mr Speaker – Michael McCarthy/Javier Castellano – 8: 3-3-1 - $438,240): Cross out the fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. This is a good filly who tracked Venetian Harbor in the local Ashland Stakes (G1) before taking over for a three-length victory and a 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She only needs to build slightly off that 124 in this race to contend for the win. Speech also ran second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) behind Swiss Skydiver and almost caught Gamine in an optional claimer at Oaklawn. Later, she was awarded the victory because of a positive on Gamine’s part. Cutting back to seven furlongs, Speech is likely to run as a mid-pack runner, and that is perfect. Expect the American public to let this Grade 1 winner float up in odds, as she is trading at 20-1 in European markets. Win contender.

2. Gamine, 7-5 (Into Mischief – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 5: 3-0-1 - $483,000): Gamine lost her May 2 allowance optional claiming start at Oaklawn because of a positive test. In her most recent start, a third-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks, officials came up with another positive test, and the investigation is still ongoing. Between those starts, she won the Acorn Stakes (G1) by an astonishing 18 3/4 lengths and the seven-furlong Test Stakes (G1) by seven lengths over Venetian Harbor. Venetian Harbor let Gamine coast on an easy lead in the latter race, which is notable because one of the owners of Venetian Harbor spoke out against the tactics on Twitter. This time, Gamine is not going to get an easy lead with Serengeti Empress sending and Venetian Harbor unlikely to hold back in the opening quarter. True pacesetters trained by Bob Baffert typically do not rate well unless proven in the past. If Gamine wins again by a dozen lengths, it is what it is. But the value is low because of Baffert, and she might find the early fractions too taxing to finish as strong as she did in the Acorn and Test. Even if she might turn in another unbelievable performance, she is a play-against in terms of value. Toss. 3. Come Dancing, 8-1 (Malibu Moon – Carlos Martin/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 18: 9-3-0 - $1,186,783): At one point last year, Come Dancing was a monster. Unfortunately, the magic is missing this time around. She began the year with a dismal 12th-place finish in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1). The flop is forgivable because of the route distance and a different trainer in D. Wayne Lukas. But reuniting with Carlos Martin and cutting back to a sprint in the Vagrancy Stakes (G3) did not help matters as she lost to the previously unknown Victim of Love. Then she tried the Ballerina Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and ran only a mild fourth to Serengeti Empress despite a generous pace setup. Come Dancing did recover with a win in the Honorable Miss Stakes (G3) on the same course, but it came against weaker horses. Even if the pace sets up for her mid-pack style, she is just not fast enough. Toss. 4. Inthemidstofbiz, 30-1 (Fed Biz – Cipriano Contreras/Emmanuel Esquivel – 13: 6-2-1 - $297,121): Using stalking tactics, this 4-year-old filly did well to capture the local Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) by three lengths. She faces far tougher opponents here, though, and lacks seven-furlong experience in 13 starts. When a trainer waits this long to stretch out beyond six furlongs, he does not see the horse as a long-winded runner. Contreras has had this horse for 10 of 13 overall starts, and did not bother to even stretch Inthemidstofbiz to a 6 1/2-furlong race. Considering the distance question and the step up in class, she is ignorable. Toss. 5. Sconsin, 20-1 (Include – Gregory Foley/James Graham – 8: 3-2-1 - $301,512): Here is another closer to think about. But there are two problems with using Sconsin. For one, she faces older fillies and mares for the first time. Even for the most talented 3-year-olds, facing elders is never an easy task. Also, it is questionable whether Sconsin is fast enough to compete. She shows a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her 2 1/4-length win in the Eight Belles Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs, which is competitive on the surface. But Four Graces, Never Forget and Mundaye Call all missed the trifecta in their next stats and went down on the TimeformUS scale. It will come as no surprise if Sconsin regresses off the 119 as well. She owns a second on this course in the Beaumont Stakes (G2), but again, the quality of the winner Four Grace is in question after a seventh-place finish in the Raven Run in her next start. Sconsin misses the cut in this analysis, but this 3-year-old filly might progress into a top closer down the road. Toss. 6. Venetian Harbor, 8-1 (Munnings – Richard Baltas/Manuel Franco – 7: 3-4-0 - $503,400): Venetian Harbor led all the way in the local Raven Run Stakes (G2), but she won by only a neck over the closing Finite with a 115 on TimeformUS. The first four finishers were separated by 3/4 of a length, which is not typically a great sign. In fast races, the field tends to fracture and show big margins between finishers. The loss in the Test is forgivable because Joel Rosario did not listen to instructions and let Gamine coast on an easy lead, rather than pressure the heavy favorite early. The runner-up in the Ashland is also forgivable because of the route distance. But another problem is that she requires an aggressive strategy in a race where it does not benefit her to contest the lead. She is liable to fold because of the pace. Toss. 7. Serengeti Empress, 3-1 (Alternation – Thomas Amoss/Luis Saez – 18: 7-4-1 - $2,005,653): When Serengeti Empress is let loose on the lead or contesting the pace, she fights hard until the end. It did not matter that Serengeti Empress set a 43.77 half-mile in Derby City Distaff while sparring with Bellafina. She kept running hard in the stretch run and lost by only a nose to Bell’s the One. Two starts ago, Serengeti Empress set fast fractions en route to winning the Ballerina Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. She shows a 130 and 127 on TimeformUS for those two starts, which are the highest speed figures this year for any horse in this field. Out of the three major speed horses, she is more likely to handle fast fractions and still finish. But with the pace scenario against her, it makes more sense to find the right mid-pack type or closer at a higher price on top. Another 43 and change half-mile will probably prove too much with Bell’s the One and Speech ready to take advantage. Use underneath. 8. Sally’s Curlin, 20-1 (Curlin – Dale Romans/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 13: 5-0-4 - $435,976): As a deep closer, Sally’s Curlin might receive attention as well from those who expect a pace collapse. However, she seems a step below the best horses. In the Derby City Distaff, she had a generous pace setup thanks to Serengeti Empress and Bellafina. Yet, she could manage only a mild third-place finish, three lengths behind Bell’s the One. In the local Madison Stakes, Sally’s Curlin was only a non-threatening fifth behind a slow pace, while Bell’s the One did close for third. Sally’s Curlin is always liable to start 10 or 12 lengths behind the pacesetter. In contrast, Bell’s the One might start about eight lengths off the lead. Of course, the pace will set up favorably, but Bell’s the One figures to outkick her again from a slightly closer position. Plus, the long shot Speech, who owns a Grade 1 on this course, might take advantage of the pace as well from mid-pack. Limit this closer from the clouds to the bottom slots. Use underneath. 9. Bell’s the One, 6-1 (Majesticperfection – Neil Pessin/Corey Lanerie – 14: 7-2-1 - $790,040): If bettors consider the pace fast, this familiar closer is the logical one to choose. In Bell’s the One’s last start alone, she made a solid late move to mow down Serengeti Empress in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs. Before that, she ran third in the Madison Stakes (G1) on this course and also won the Winning Colors Stakes (G3) at Churchill as well. But she is not a “Churchill Downs only” filly. The third-place finish in the Madison came as a result of a slow pace, and she only lost by 3 3/4 lengths to a talented one in Guarana. Last year, Bell’s the One took the Raven Run Stakes (G2) over this course at the same seven-furlong distance. Given the right pace, she is capable of catching the speedy fillies up front. The odds might not float too high at roughly 9/2 to 6/1, but she is a major player if the front collapses and she gives a peak performance, which is reasonable to expect in the Breeders’ Cup. Win contender. Conclusion: Bell’s the One and Speech are the two runners that I'm labeling as win contenders. The final decision on which one to count on depends on live wagering, as the public might overbet Bell’s the One, considering she beat Serengeti Empress last time. In contrast, the overlooked Speech is almost certain to float to double-digit odds. Both of them are usable in horizontal wagers. At 10-1 or higher, Speech is playable as a Win or Place bet. At 5-1 or higher, Bell’s the One is also a viable Win or Place bet.