Awesome Again fair odds: Opposing Baffert is prudent play

A popular thought among handicappers is, "Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races."

I will be looking to buck that maxim in the Awesome Again Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, as both of the Bob Baffert-trained entrants - Defunded and National Treasure - are among the three Grade 1 winners in the $300,000 1 1/8-mile race, and both figure to be overbet.

The other Grade 1 winner is Stilleto Boy, who is right on my value line at 6-1. I will be watching the board, but the two horses I do prefer are just in better form.

Slow Down Andy has the ability to be a little closer to the pace than we saw last out in the Pacific Classic. Either Arabian Lion or Geaux Rocket Ride - the one-two finishers in Del Mar's premiere event - would be favored in this spot, and Slow Down Andy ran well against both, but seeing as all three have similar tactics, Slow Down Andy's lone presence here makes him dangerous.

Senor Buscador does not get respect at the windows. He has won three of his last seven stakes tries but only been favored once and never less than 5-1 otherwise. There is pace in here to chase, and he is a play at his 5-1 morning line.

There is some chance that both horses I highlighted could offer value in the win pool. I anticipate that Senor Buscador will be the better value if so, and if only one of these two are higher than my fair odds, then Senor Buscador will be the one. Thus, I expect to make a win bet on him and will examine the exacta will pays with Slow Down Andy as well as National Treasure and Stiletto Boy.

If Senor Buscador scratches, then I will hope the public backs Baffert with gusto and just make a win bet on Slow Down Andy.