Awesome Again Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis

Odds and value aside, it is great to see McKinzie in sharp form approaching the Breeders’ Cup Classic as he makes Saturday’s Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park his final prep. He is fulfilling the potential seen earlier in his career.

But that also makes this a difficult betting race at first glance with a legitimate favorite running on a different level than the rest of this tired group. We’ll try to identify the few horses capable of challenging at the nine-furlong distance, though McKinzie will have to throw in a clunker to lose.

The Awesome Again is carded as Race 10 with post time set for approximately 8 p.m. ET.

1. Higher Power, 3-1 (Medaglia d’Oro – John Sadler/Flavien Prat – 13: 5-1-4): After running fifth in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) for new trainer John Sadler, Higher Power won a one-mile optional claimer on turf and went on to finish second in the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar. But then he turned in an even better performance in the Pacific Classic (G1), winning by 5 ¼ lengths over Draft Pick and Mongolian Groom. If McKinzie loses, this is the likely upsetter. Win contender.

2. Draft Pick, 8-1 (Candy Ride – Peter Eurton/Joe Talamo – 12: 3-3-3): Draft Pick ran a disappointing race in the San Diego Handicap (G2) as he let Mongolian Groom pass him for second toward the end. But he rebounded in the Pacific Classic, finishing second and a neck ahead of Mongolian Groom. Watching his morning workouts on XBTV, he is a bit lazy sometimes. But he does show a consistent record with nine Top 3 finishes out of 12 starts. Use underneath.

3. Seeking the Soul, 10-1 (Perfect Soul – Dallas Stewart/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 28: 7-6-7): Occasionally Seeking the Soul pops a big race to win at Churchill Downs, such as when he took the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) over the summer. But then he ran a lifeless seventh in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Stewart cited the electrolyte imbalance known as thumps for a poor effort. Here, Seeking the Soul ships again even though he seems to prefer racing at home in Kentucky. Toss.  

4. McKinzie, 3/5 (Street Sense – Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – 12: 7-4-0): McKinzie recently won the Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and ran a troubled second in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) at Belmont. His consistency is remarkable. In 12 career starts, he hit the top two spots in 11 races. His only clunker was in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic when he came home a dismal 12th going second off the layoff. This is not the Breeders’ Cup, but rather a soft-looking Grade 1. The pick.

5. Mongolian Groom, 10-1 (Hightail – Enebish Ganbat/Abel Cedillio – 15: 2-2-3): Earlier in the year, Mongolian Groom surprised bettors by running third at 53-1 in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). His results since then are mixed, but he did out-kick Draft Pick for second place in the San Diego and then ran a decent third in the Pacific Classic, only a neck behind Draft Pick. Both horses were well-beaten by Higher Power. With that said, this son of Hightail might appreciate cutting back to nine furlongs. Live longshot.
    
6. Isotherm, 30-1 (Lonhro – Philip D'Amato/Geovanni Franco – 24: 3-3-5): The 6-year-old horse last won in the 2017 San Marcos Stakes (G2) on turf. Twelve losses have come since then, with his most recent effort resulting in a flat fourth in the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes off the layoff. Last year, he ran second in the Harry F. Brubaker before turning in a surprising third at 57-1 in this race, only 2 ¾ lengths behind Accelerate. A similar sort of pattern can’t be expected. Toss.

Conclusion: As stated above, this is not an easy race to wager on. Horizontally, it is understandable if McKinzie is used as a single. Higher Power is usable as a B.

If bridge-jumpers come in and unload on McKinzie, then make a show bet on one of Higher Power, Draft Pick or Mongolian Groom. If more than $100,000 is bet on McKinzie in the show pool, it might pay a decent amount if he flops. They still have to run the race, after all.

But vertically, this could be a pass? Santa Anita’s Saturday card is filled with other good races, and the Zenyatta Stakes (G1) might provide a high-caliber opportunity for those who can wait.