August Rodin is a good bet to go out a winner in Japan Cup

Can non-Japanese connections break through and win for the first time in 19 years? Can a 3-year-old filly win and replicate the great Almond Eye’s feat in 2018?

These are two of the questions international race fans are excited to find the answer to when Tokyo Racecourse plays host to the Grade 1 Japan Cup as race 12 of 12 on early Sunday morning EST. The Japan Cup also is the last leg of a Pick 5.

Auguste Rodin, son of Japanese Triple Crown winner Deep Impact, presents a tremendous amount of wagering value if he holds his current odds of nearly 12-1 as the fifth choice.

This six-time Grade or Group 1 winner has proven himself overseas, winning the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles, about the Japan Cup distance of 2,400 meters. In fact, his record at races in the 2,400-meter range is 4-for-6, so this distance is his prime.

Interestingly, beginning as a 2-year-old, his form cycle tends to be fairly predictable, with two consecutive top efforts and then a bounce. After finishing a dull fifth in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) as the favorite versus the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf star Rebel’s Romance and impressive race winner Goliath, who also is in the Japan Cup, followed by a hard-fought second to Economics by a neck in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1), he is due to pair another top effort.

Do Deuce enters as the 11-5 expected favorite as of Wednesday evening, and he is deservedly so, as a four-time Group 1 winner with a serious home track advantage. Of his five runs at Tokyo Racecourse, he has returned a winner three times, all Group 1 victories. His career top Netkeiba speed figure of 118 as earned last December in the 2,500-meter, about 13-furlongs, Arima Kinen (G1) places him firmly in the running with other Group 1 winners entered this weekend.

Three-year-old filly sensation and near-Triple Crown winner Cervinia is currently second choice at between 3-1 and 7-2 odds. Her worst performance, unfortunately, came in the Oka Sho (G1), which served as her 3-year-old debut, thwarting her filly triple Trown Chances. Finishing 13th under first-time jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev because regular rider Christophe Lemaire was recovering from injury, she failed to respond in the final straight and visually appeared like a very short horse. Trainer Kimura’s assistant trainer Ota have noted she performs better over longer distances, and she’s already proved his sentiments with her win over this weekend’s course and distance in the Japanese Oaks (G1). Look for her to be flying late in the last furlong.

Japan Racing Association champion 3-year old filly of 2022 Stars on Earth hasn’t found the winners circle since her championship season. However, she’s been very close, with her only out-of-the-money finish coming last out in the Dubai Sheema Cup (G1) in March. The layoff isn’t of much concern because she performed well after six months off last year in this same race to finish third to the venerable Equinox. Her current odds of 11-1 reflect her ability as well as her status as a fan favorite.

A possible long shot to consider is German-bred Goliath, who U.S.-based owner John Stewart recently acquired ahead of his victory in the Prix de Paris (G2). He is 24-1 in current markets but might take more money ahead of the race because of American involvement.

Race 9 on the Japan Cup card is the Oriental Sho (G1). This is the second leg of the Pick 5 that ends with the Japan Cup, and Shimhanada is the horse I’ll lean on in this sequence.

This late-blooming 3-year-old colt has been brought along slowly by veteran trainer Sakae Kunieda, who has had Almond Eye, Black Hawk and Oka Sho winner Stellenbosch in his care. He enters this race off of two emphatic wins closing with a flourish in 2,000 meter turf races, the same surface and distance as the Oriental Sho.

I’d be remiss if I missed an intriguing pedigree note. Shimhanada is by Rey de Oro out of Sinhadipa, by War Emblem. To reminisce on the great stud career that could’ve been, War Emblem was a very reluctant stallion in the breeding shed, often not showing any interest in his mares and refusing to breed. Despite a limited crop of only 106 registered foals, he sired seven JRA stakes winners, including two G1 winners. I’m hoping Shimhanada is the real deal and can continue War Emblem’s legacy forward, hopefully forfeiting his grandsire’s bad habits.