'At least' 17 likely for Arkansas Derby; will Charlatan get in?

Will the Grade 1, $750,000 Arkansas Derby split, or could unbeaten Bob Baffert colt Charlatan get shut out of the only prominent meeting of 3-year-old colts for the foreseeable future?

That's the big question heading into Sunday's entry deadline and subsequent post position draw after Oaklawn Park's publicity staff reported that "at least" 17 horses are probable to run.

The Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman reported earlier this week, having spoken to Oaklawn racing secretary Pat Pope, that 20 entrants are needed to card what would be separate $500,000 divisions, meaning an extra $250,000 in purse money put up by the track.

In previous Kentucky Derby preps, qualifying points for split division races have been paid out according to how much of the original purse is offered. An Arkansas Derby double could offer two-thirds of the 100-40-20-10 splits to both races' top-four finishers or, in a unique season in which multiple major preps were canceled or postponed, Churchill Downs could honor the full value.

Barring a split, the Arkansas Derby will be limited to 14 starters prioritized be earnings with no also-eligibles. The current probables are:

Amen Corner (Jeremiah O’Dwyer)

Anneau d’Or (Blaine Wright)

Basin (Steve Asmussen)

Blackberry Wine (Joe Sharp)

Charlatan (Bob Baffert)

Farmington Road (Todd Pletcher)

Fast Enough (Rafael Becerra)

Gouverneur Morris (Pletcher)

King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila)

My Friends Beer (O’Dwyer)

Nadal (Baffert)

Shooters Shoot (Peter Eurton)

Silver Prospector (Asmussen)

Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone)

Storm the Court (Eurton)

Taishan (Richard Baltas)

Wells Bayou (Brad Cox)

From that list, Charlatan, with $67,200 banked, only exceeds earnings of Amen Corner, putting him in danger of missing out on this step up to stakes company. While receiving comparisons to late-blooming Triple Crown winner Justify, the Speightstown colt trained by Bob Baffert has earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in both his starts, a Feb. 16 maiden win and March 14 allowance optional claiming victory at Santa Anita Park.

"If he doesn’t get in, he doesn’t get in," Baffert recently said of Charlatan, who's in less of a rush up the class ladder now given the Kentucky Derby's postponement to Sept. 5.

A number of other 3-year-olds could emerge as contenders, however, in the next 24 hours with 99 nominated to the Arkansas Derby. Whether to split could be a deadline decision.

In terms of local Arkansas Derby activity Saturday, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner King Guillermo went to the track for the first time since arriving Thursday afternoon at Oaklawn, jogging the wrong way after the surface renovation break for trainer Juan Carlos Avila.

Owned by five-time major league All-Star Victor Martinez, King Guillermo and stablemate Trophy Chaser will represent the first local starters for the Florida-based Avila, who amassed roughly 3,000 victories in his native Venezuela before saddling his first United States winner in March of 2018. Trophy Chaser, who is owned by Avila, is pointing for the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) for older horses the same day as the Arkansas Derby.

Avila said he originally planned to train King Guillermo up to the Kentucky Derby, but like numerous horsemen across the country called an audible because of COVID-19. King Guillermo will still be running May 2, just not in the expected race.

“I didn’t have to change my training schedule,” Avila said. “He worked very well Wednesday, very nice, at Gulfstream. He’s ready to run.”

King Guillermo covered a half-mile over a fast track in :48.18, his third published work at Gulfstream Park since winning the Tampa Bay Derby at odds of 49-1. King Guillermo won the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.63 for 1 1/16 miles, third-fastest time in race history. 

“He’s a nice horse,” Avila said of King Guillermo. “The perspiration, the aerobic, it’s very nice. He seems like he can run two miles. It’s excellent. It’s amazing, this horse. I’ve only been in the United States three years. I worked for 30 years in Venezuela. I’ve never seen one horse like this. I have 3,000 wins and many won many stakes internationally. This is an amazing horse.”

Overall, King Guillermo has a 2-0-1 mark from four lifetime starts and earnings of $240,350. Martinez purchased the colt for $150,000 at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.

Also Saturday, Blackberry Wine completed major Arkansas Derby preparations by working a half-mile in :48 over a good track morning. Shooters Shoot also breezed Saturday morning, covering five furlongs in 1:00. It was fastest of 10 works recorded at the distance.