Ashland fair odds: Supa opportunity to beat the favorite

From a class standpoint it's a compelling Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep that could provide some clue as to whether any filly is in the same league as the undefeated Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) winner Good Cheer. From a wagering standpoint it's a must-play race considering the top two choices on the morning-line figure to be underlays.

The odds say Muhimma is the filly to beat. Although I agree from a she-is-the-most-likely-winner standpoint, she is certainly not the horse to bet given her 9-5 morning line and less than 2-1 projected off odds via Horse Racing Nation. Contrast those odds with my fair line of 5-2, and it is easy to see why I view her as a bet against. And really, what is to like at such a short price? The Demoiselle (G2) was fine, but both the top two disappointed in their 3-year-old debuts, including Muhimma at Oaklawn. 

I like Supa Speed the best in here as my 3-1 fair odds are a tremendous overlay vs. the 4-1 morning line and 5-1 that HRN projects. Maybe she gets ignored on class given her 0-for-3-in-stakes record, but I'm focused on her last start, which also happened to be her only dirt try. She chased Bob Baffert-trained Maysam in the Santa Ysabel (G3), and although she could not get to that one, I do think she can get to the pace threats here.

La Cara is my alternative as I expect her to be tracking my top pick. If Supa Speed folds, then that's good news for La Cara. If she doesn't, then I'll be cheering for this straight exacta.

Running Away is my other toss in here. She is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, although HRN has her about even with Supa Speed and La Cara the more likely second choice. Regardless, with 8-1 fair odds, there is no way I'm betting Running Away here.