Ashland fair odds: Favorite faces 'friction' in Ky. Oaks prep

One of the shortest prices opening weekend at Keeneland is Zany in the Grade 1 Ashland on Friday, and I am going to try to beat her.

Zany is the favorite to win not only the Ashland but also the Kentucky Oaks (G1) four weeks later at Churchill Downs. And why not? The American Pharoah filly trained by Todd Pletcher for Mike Repole's Repole Stable is undefeated in three starts by a combined 17 3/4 lengths, including a 1-5 triumph over next-out winner Life of Joy in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

But in the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast." Or maybe "yes so fast" because French Friction is not without her chance to upset the big favorite in the Ashland. Like Zany, French Friction is undefeated, though both her wins have come sprinting, so the Ashland will be the City of Light filly's first race around two turns. She has won both her starts by a combined 11 3/4 lengths, including a 5 3/4-length blitz of the Dixie Bell last out at Oaklawn Park.

I perhaps am being a bit over-aggressive in tabbing French Friction the most likely winner of the Ashland, but all that really matters is that she is by far the better bet of the two horses. French Friction has the class and distance questions to answer, yes. But this is the time of year for that, after all. I also see it as a positive that Mark Casse is 7-for-74 the last 10 years in Grade 1 races in which he takes on an odds-on horse, as he is here against Zany. Those numbers for the Hall of Fame trainer are good for a +37% Horse Racing Nation Impact score and +18% ROI. 

There is no reason to overthink how to bet this race. It's a win bet on French Friction and a straight exacta beneath Zany. Given Percy's Bar's presence as the second choice on the morning line, that "place bet" exacta should provide adequate cover if French Friction is who I thought she is but Zany is just better.