Arlington Million fair odds: Shug is the play, but which 1?

The two biggest questions bettors are likely asking themselves ahead of the Arlington Million on Saturday at Colonial Downs are how 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will run on turf and whether Cairo's European form fits among this group.

If the answer to to the first question is "the same" or "better" then the answer to the second question or any other question does not matter. Mystik Dan's top performances, all on dirt to date, are better than anything the rest of the field has accomplished. If he runs on turf as well as he does on dirt, then he is the most likely winner. If he runs better, then he is a stone-cold cinch.

As you can see from my fair odds of 8-1 to make him my fourth choice in the field of eight, I do not expect improvement on turf.

Goldencents is fine as a turf sire. In percentage of overall winners, his progeny win about as often on turf as they do on dirt or synthetic. Graded-stakes-wise, he has four such winners, led by Going to Vegas, and his overall record in graded stakes on turf is 8-for-51, including 2-for-13 in Grade 1 races, with Going to Vegas having both.

The female side of the family is dire, however, with dam Ma'am 1-for-6 on grass with the victory coming at 8-5 in a $30,000 claiming race at Ellis Park. Others in the family underneath Mystik Dan's first four dams are a combined 3-for-57 on turf with no notable stakes performances.

As for Cairo, Europe-based horses' success in North America grass racing is well established at every level from maidens to the Breeders' Cup. That this one finished within two lengths of winning Group 1 races in England in his last two starts makes him dangerous. Flipsside is, he was 40-1 and 100-1 in those starts and is 0-for-12 in his 4- and 5-year-old seasons.

I'd be inclined to take a flyer on him if Mystik Dan takes a lot of money and Integration ends up odds-on, but otherwise I'm not excited about just defaulting to the international horse.

Speaking of Integration, he is definitely the most likely winner of this given his consistent Grade 1 class and familiarity with the surface. I could see him getting bet heavily here, though, so I want to be prepared with an alternative. In thise case, the alternative is in Integration's barn, as Hall of Fame trainer Claude R. "Shug" McGaughey conditions both Integration and Fort Washington.

Of all the horses in this race, Fort Washington has the carrer-best Ragozin figure on turf, and that alone makes him worth a play at the expected price. 

Of the others not mentioned, Grand Sonata fits, but expect him to be an underlay with trainer Todd Pletcher choosing this spot over the Sword Dancer. The others looked overmatched.