Arlington Million 2023: Horse Racing Nation expert picks

The Grade 1 Arlington Million happens for the first time at its new home of Colonial Downs on Saturday. The race drew a field of 11. Though Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf winner Atone was named the 7-2 morning-line favorite, most of the field can stake a legitimate claim to run well. Given the field's size and well-matched composition, it shapes as a particularly interesting betting race.

Below is how the experts at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Arlington Million.

Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: No. 3 Set Piece

On the board: No. 5 Rockemperor

Long shot I like: No. 9 Adhamo

Analysis: Not much conviction in the long shot category, as I think four or five of these will take equal money. I'd rather just focus on the two of those I think are better than the others, and that's Set Piece and Rockemperor.

Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod

Winner: No. 8 Catnip

On the board: No. 3 Set Piece

Long shot I like: No. 9 Adhamo

Analysis: Talk about a strong form cycle. Catnip is on it, and the cutback from 1 3/8 miles in the United Nations (G1) to the 1 1/4 miles in the Million looks like a perfect fit for this stalker of a gelding who looks like he has been training lights-out at Fair Hill. Presuming there is an honest pace, Set Piece should be there at the end to close on it. Oh, a 10-1 long shot trained by Chad Brown in a $1 million turf race? If Adhamo offers even half that coming off such a long break, I am in.

Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet

Winner: No. 2 Never Explain

On the board: No. 8 Catnip

Long shot I like: No. 6 Master Piece

Analysis: Never Explain has really blossomed this year for Shug McGaughey. I like his tactical speed and inner draw. Catnip is on a roll this year. He edged Never Explain in the Monmouth Stakes (G3) on June 17. He graduated at Colonial last summer and projects an outer stalking trip. Master Piece handles longer distances and ran quality races on multiple occasions in the graded ranks. The closer might get a nice setup.

Wagers: No. 2 to win, exacta 2-8/2-6-8, trifecta 2-8/all/6

Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: No. 2 Never Explain

On the board: No. 8 Catnip

Long shot I like: No. 9 Adhamo

Analysis: In a wide-open edition of the Arlington Million, it jumps off the page that Shug McGaughey sends Never Explain back in two weeks. He won at Tampa Bay Downs in January off a similarly short layoff, and he will get more pace to finish into than he got in the Bowling Green (G2) last out. Catnip snapped a three-win streak in the United Nations last out but he should love the turnback in distance and can get a good tactical trip. Adhamo has not raced since October, but Chad Brown does well with layoff horses and his experience at or about this uncommon 1 1/4-mile distance bodes well for his chances.