Arkansas Derby fair odds: Whose preparation stands out?

Although there are worse 3-year-old debuts than finishing third in a Grade 2 race, Litmus Test losing by 5 1/4 lengths as the 3-2 favorite in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on March 1 at Oaklawn is not what we've come to expect from trainer Bob Baffert.

However, one does not win the Kentucky Derby six times and get inducted into the Hall of Fame without dealing with setbacks, and Baffert seems to be pushing some buttons by leaving the Nyquist colt in Hot Springs, Ark., for a pair of workouts between the Rebel and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby four weeks later. Baffert is 6-for-8 with Oaklawn starters who had their last published workout at Oaklawn.

That, plus the fact he will not be favored, is enough for me to take a shot on the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner returning to form on Saturday. The absence of Napoleon Solo also makes his job easier, as the likely scratch of that one in favor of the Wood Memorial (G2) next week leaves Redland Rebels as the primary target and maybe leaves likely favorite Renegade with too much to do.

Renegade is certainly the horse to beat off that Sam F. Davis Stakes, but he will be overbet in this spot in part because of that likely scratch of Napoleon Solo. 

Rebel runner-up Silent Tactic has proven to be reliable and should be in the mix again here, but value seems unlikely. Blackout Time is somewhat similar to Litmus Test in that he should improve second off the layoff from the Rebel, but Litmus Test has more upside.

My goal is to lean on Litmus Test just thinking most people will be singling Renegade or spreading well beyond Litmus Test.