Arkansas Derby fair odds: 3 obvious favorites, 1 clear choice

Famous last words to call any race an X-horse race, but it is extremely difficult to look past Rebel Stakes winner Timberlake, Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Muth or Southwest Stakes winner Mystik Dan as the likely winner of the Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby on Saturday at Oaklawn.

Indeed, they are clearly the top three choices on both the track's morning line and my fair odds line. If they were a coupled entry for wagering purposes, 2-5 would actually be fair value on one of the three winning. 

Alas, they are not coupled, and proposition betting has not come to racing for the most part yet. So we need to take one individually on their merits. 

Timberlake and Muth are, understandably, effectively co-favorites at 9-5 and 8-5, respectively, on the morning line with Mystik Dan the 5-2 third choice. I do not see any of them offering value at those prices, but I think either Timberlake or Muth can be bet lower than their morning line, which would potentially drive Mystik Dan into playable territory.

It's a gamble, of course. Both Timberlake and Muth have flashed races that are as good as what Mystik Dan did in the slop last out, but taking the third choice on the fastest horse last out is a no-brainer to me.

The next tier is fairly matched as well and based on the morning line, Time For Truth might be a small play in the win pool if the favorites all get bet. More important, that one might be the exotics key if the morning line holds up.