Ky. Derby prep fair odds: Baffert holds cards in Arkansas Derby

Bob Baffert won only one Grade 1 race from eight tries with a 3-year-old in March or April from 2020 to 2024. In fact, the Hall of Fame trainer was on a six-race losing streak in such races between Roadster in the 2019 Santa Anita Derby and Muth in the 2024 Arkansas Derby.

Now, obviously a lot happened between those two races, including Covid, a September Kentucky Derby, suspension. But to quote a trusted horseplayer friend, "We'll know for sure Bob is back if he wins (this year's Arkansas Derby) with Cornucopian. These are the races he won at the height of his powers."

Indeed, Baffert was 5-for-21 in such races from 2015 to 2019 and has won 22 Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps overall since the first of his nine wins in the Santa Anita Derby with eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up Cavonnier in 1996. He will go for no. 10 next week with 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull. But also but up this week is the Arkansas Derby with a colt whose Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances are the opposite of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner.

Cornucopian did not make his career debut until after Citizen Bull already had won his 3-year-old debut. He won a maiden race on the Rebel Stakes undercard Feb. 23 at Oaklawn by 5 3/4 lengths, paying $3.40. Now the $1.1 million Into Mischief colt is going from six furlongs to nine furlongs in his second career start. It's a tall order, but Cornucopian appears up to the task given that his maiden win was faster than any of the other eight 3-year-olds have run in their 50 career starts combined.

So my fair odds of even money on Cornucopian are basically saying that Baffert's back and Cornucopian wins by open lengths or else that he's not and Cornucopian gets beat. 50-50.

One thought on the if-he-gets-beat side of things is that it's reasonable to say that if Cornucopian does not win then he might not even hit the board. I had a hard time separating Sandman and Coal Battle, and if Cornucopian ends up underlaid at odds-on, then I'd be inclined to just use both those horses. I wouldn't want to be right to bet against the favorite at a too-short price and miss out on one 9-2 shot because I preferred the other at 5-1.

I've seen some Publisher buzz, and the chance at a Publisher-Journalism exacta in five weeks intrigues me as a turf writer. But I have him way less likely than either Coal Battle or Sandman despite their proximity in morning-line prices. Famous last words after fading Tiztastic last week, but I'll let Publisher beat me.