Arkansas Derby 2024: Odds, analysis for Ky. Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby is the final of four stops on the Oaklawn road to the Kentucky Derby 2024, and 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points are available to the eligible finishers.

Recent winners of the Arkansas Derby went on to become stars of Thoroughbred racing, led by the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex had victories in two legs of the Triple Crown. Curlin and American Pharoah would win the Breeders’ Cup Classic and be named horse of the year with career earnings over $10 million and $8 million, respectively.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 12 on a 13-race card, with post time set for 7:47 p.m. EDT.

1. Will Take It, 50-1. Tapit – Eddie Milligan Jr. / Francisco Arrieta – 3: M-1-0 - $25,438. Will Take It is still a maiden after three tries as a long shot at Oaklawn since the end of December. Last time he improved significantly and missed the win by a nose after a stretch duel. Toss.

2. Timberlake, 9-5. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 6: 3-1-0 - $1,094,350. Timberlake won the Rebel (G2) in his 2024 debut, running the same speed figure as he did in his two prior starts when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Champagne (G1). In each of those races he rallied from a stalking position. With 66 Derby points, the Brad Cox runner has secured a spot in the run for the roses field. Cox won the Arkansas Derby the last two years with Angel of Empire and Cyberknife. Win contender.

3. Dimatic, 20-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Cristian Torres – 4: 1-0-1 - $117,578. Dimatic is the first of three horses in this field for Steve Asmussen. He broke his maiden in his third try, which was on a sloppy track at Oaklawn. Dimatic moved onto the Derby trail and ran fifth in the Rebel, where he gained a few places but lost ground to the leaders. The Winchell Thoroughbreds home-bred son of Gun Runner has 5 Derby points. Asmussen has won the Arkansas Derby four times since 2002. Toss.

4. Time for Truth, 20-1. Omaha Beach – Ron Moquett / Rafael Bejarano – 3: 2-1-0 - $182,250. Time for Truth won his debut Dec. 31 at odds of 4-1 and then again raced on the lead to finish second in the Ozark at Oaklawn as the favorite. Earlier in March, he won an allowance in his first start with Lasix around two turns after pressing the pace, again as the top betting choice. Live long shot.

5. Liberal Arts, 15-1. Arrogate – Robert Medina / Tyler Gaffalione – 6: 2-1-3 - $294,825. Liberal Arts ran on the Derby trail three times since breaking his maiden in his third start, which was at Ellis Park in August. He was third in the Iroquois (G3) and then won the Street Sense (G3), both at Churchill Downs. In his first start of the year Liberal Arts moved from the back of the field and finished third in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn behind two horses who are in this Arkansas Derby field. His current Derby points total is 19. Use underneath.

6. Informed Patriot, 30-1. Hard Spun – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 6: 1-0-3 - $146,640. Informed Patriot is the second Derby hopeful from the Asmussen barn in this field. He broke his maiden in his second try in September going seven furlongs at Churchill. Informed Patriot has not won since but has raced in an allowance and three times in Kentucky Derby preps, earning 8 Derby points with a pair of thirds and a recent fifth in the Sunland Derby (G3). Toss.

7. Muth, 8-5. Good Magic – Bob Baffert / Juan Hernandez – 5: 3-2-0 - $716,600. Muth has five career starts with three wins and two place finishes, including a win in the American Pharoah (G1) and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Those two finishes in Kentucky Derby qualifying races led to 25 vacated points because trainer Bob Baffert is not eligible for the race. Muth, who sold for $2 million as a 2-year-old, won his only start of this year in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) by almost three lengths as the odds-on favorite. He has not raced since but trained steadily in the past six weeks. Baffert won both divisions of this race in 2020 along with Triple Crown winner in American Pharoah in 2015 and Bodemeister in 2012. Win contender.

8. Just Steel, 15-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Keith Asmussen – 10: 2-3-1 - $462,045. Just Steel won his first career start at Saratoga after which he raced in six stakes races, including four trying to get qualifying points on the Derby trail. A pair of seconds in the Smarty Jones and the Southwest at Oaklawn earned him 15 Derby points. Last time out he raced wide in both turns and came up empty in the stretch of the Rebel. D. Wayne Lukas won this race twice, but they date back to 1984 and 1985. Use underneath.

9. Mystik Dan, 5-2. Goldencents – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 5: 2-1-0 - $510,110. 21 Derby points. Mystik Dan had a breakout performance when he won the Southwest by eight lengths at 11-1 with a stalking trip, earning a speed figure that is significantly higher than all the horses in the Arkansas Derby field. The Ken McPeek trainee was fifth in the Smarty Jones in his prior start but pressed the pace on that day. Mystik Dan has 21 Derby points. Win contender.

10. Imperial Gun, 30-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Emmanuel Esquivel – 3: 1-0-0 - $82,250. Imperial Gun is the third trainee for Asmussen in this Derby prep. He broke his maiden in his second try at Oaklawn by almost six lengths. Last time he was fifth in an allowance as the odds-on favorite while running with Lasix for the first time. Toss.

Summary: The race analysis lists Timberlake, Muth and Mystik Dan as win contenders. All three come to the Arkansas Derby with a victory in their most recent race and are the fastest horses in the field.

Muth won the San Vicente going seven furlongs but has been off for nearly three months, and the nine-furlong distance may not be his best. Mystic Dan has the highest speed figure, but that came on a muddy and sealed track and rain is not in the forecast for Saturday.

Timberlake comes from the barn of Brad Cox and after an impressive 2024 debut in the Rebel should be on the top of his game and move forward to win the Arkansas Derby. Use Liberal Arts and Time for Truth to bolster exotic payouts.