Arkansas Derby 2022: Odds and analysis

The $1.25 million, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park offers Kentucky Derby contenders the opportunity to compete for the top-level points (100-40-20-10) at a distance of a 1 1/8 miles.

With the Run for the Roses less than six weeks away, this will be the last chance for the horses in the field to gather Derby qualifying points. There will be an urgency about winning points in this race since only four of the nine in the field have earned points.

Secret Oath is atop the current points qualifying list for the Kentucky Oaks and now will try to find a spot on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas is famous for his success racing fillies against males, winning the 1988 Run for the Roses with Winning Colors.

Doppleganger would have earned 20 points for his second-place finish in the San Felipe (G2) on March 5 but at the time he was trained by Bob Baffert, who is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby. Recently switched to trainer Tim Yakteen, Doppleganger now can accumulate points.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Arkansas Derby, which is scheduled as race 12 of 13 along with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. Post time for the race is set for 7:35 p.m. EDT.

1. Kavod (15-1 – Lea – Chris Hartman / Mitchell Murrill – 12: 3-1-0 - $343,000 – 7 Derby points) Kavod is the most experienced 3-year-old in this field with 12 starts, nine of which came last year. In 2022, he made all three starts on the Kentucky Derby trail at Oaklawn Park and ran fourth each time. In the Southwest (G3) and the Rebel (G2), he set the pace for six furlongs. Current trainer Chris Hartman claimed Kavod for $50,000 in November at Churchill Downs. The best that we can probably expect is another underneath finish. Blinkers come off. Toss.

2. Chasing Time (12-1 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Jose Lezcano – 6: 2-2-0 - $209,460 – 0 Derby points) Chasing Time made the jump from an allowance victory at Oaklawn to the Rebel, where he ran in the second group of horses and did not advance beyond that position to finish fifth. Owned by the My Racehorse partnerships, he was a heavy favorite in all of his races except the Rebel. Those horses with so many microshare owners are usually heavily overbet. Toss.

3. Barber Road (6-1 – Race Day – John Ortiz / Reylu Gutierrez – 7: 2-3-1 - $400,720 – 18 Derby points) This one-time maiden claimer has been a consistent performer throughout his career, which includes top-three finishes in all three of the Oaklawn Derby trail races. He has gathered 18 points thus far and was third, just a half-length from the top spot, in the Rebel with a late rally. Use underneath.

4. Doppelganger (9-2 –Into Mischief – Tim Yakteen / John Velazquez – 3: 1-1-0 - $123,200 – 0 Derby points) Doppelganger recently was transferred from the barn of Bob Baffert to that of his former assistant trainer Tim Yakteen so that the horse can have a chance to earn Derby qualifying points. The son of Into Mischief began his career in December with a maiden win at Los Alamitos and then went to the San Vicente (G2) where he was fourth behind Forbidden Kingdom and Pinehurst. Last seen, Doppelganger was second in the San Felipe (G2), again behind Forbidden Kingdom but well ahead of the rest of the field. That performance gives him a chance in this field. He will race without blinkers for the first time. Win contender.

5. Un Ojo (6-1 – Laoban – Ricky Courville / Ramon Vasquez – 6: 2-2-0 - $776,321 – 54 Derby points) This New York-bred shocked the crowd at Oaklawn for the Rebel when got a rail trip and railed to win at odds of 75-1, getting his second victory in six starts. He was second in a strong edition of the Withers (G3) before that when racing behind Early Voting. Typically, those big long shots have trouble coming back to win another race on the Derby trail, although he certainly has appreciated the longer distances. Use underneath.

6. Secret Oath (5-2 – Arrogate – D. Wayne Lukas / Luis Contreras – 6: 4-0-1 - $465,167 – 0 Derby points, 60 Oaks points) Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has the filly in fabulous form with three open-length victories in a row, each time with a dazzling turn of foot down the stretch. Secret Oath has enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Oaks already, so Lukas will take on the boys to try to pick up enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby. Win or lose in the Arkansas Derby, she will have the same amount of time to prepare for those races on the first weekend in May as if she would if she faced the fillies instead. Top choice.

7. Ben Diesel (20-1 – Will Take Charge – Dallas Stewart / Jon Court – 5: 1-0-1 - $44,242 – 3 Derby points) After a debut win as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs, this guy has been on the Derby trail four times, with his best result being a third in the Southwest. His most recent eighth in the Rebel was not encouraging, yet Dallas Stewart brings him back for another try. It is a big purse, so a board-hitting finish pays well. Toss.

8. Cyberknife (8-1 – Gun Runner – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 5: 2-2-0 - $110,000 – 0 Derby points) Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox has been out of the Kentucky Derby spotlight this year with horses such as Cyberknife. He was a disappointing sixth in the Lecomte (G3) in January but came back with a visually impressive three-length allowance win at Fair Grounds in February. Odds here might be untypically high for a Cox runner. Live long shot.

9. We the People (7-2 – Constitution – Rodolphe Brisset / Flavien Prat – 2: 2-0-0 - $114,000 – 0 Derby points) This son of Constitution is unbeaten after two starts at Oaklawn, with his maiden winner in February going a mile and then an allowance by five lengths as the odds-on favorite. There is plenty to like from those initial races, where he pressed the pace. In today’s run-up to the Kentucky Derby he has certainly earned a shot to see if he can qualify for the big race. Promising newcomer.

Summary: D. Wayne Lukas has found an excellent field for his filly Secret Oath to take on the boys, with only three other horses who have won a stakes race. Un Ojo leads that list with his victory in the Rebel, Kavod won a listed sprint stake in December and Pappacap found the winner’s circle in the Best Pal (G2) as a 2-year-old.

Secret Oath is the top choice and clearly the horse to beat in the Arkansas Derby. The undistinguished performance of most of the field on the Derby trail makes me want to look for a new face such as We the People to provide the biggest challenge to the filly. Also, Barber Road figures to be competitive nearing the finish line.