Are overlays profitable in the Kentucky Derby?
A $5,000 win bet in the 6th Race on a Friday at Laurel Park will drastically change the tote board. In the Kentucky Derby, this same bet will have minimal effect on the final odds. It takes a significant amount of money for a horse to be notably higher or lower odds than expected in the Derby. There are plenty of people who think they are "in the know" on Derby Saturday, but are they usually right?
Below we analyze the winners of the past 13 runnings of the Kentucky Derby and take a look at the biggest underlays and overlays during this time to determine if watching the tote board can be impactful.
| Winner | Morning Line | Final Odds | Overlay/Underlay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medina Spirit* | 15-1 | 12.1 | underlay |
| Authentic | 8-1 | 8.4 | overlay |
| Country House | 30-1 | 65.2 | overlay |
| Justify | 3-1 | 2.9 | underlay |
| Always Dreaming | 5-1 | 4.7 | underlay |
| Nyquist | 3-1 | 2.3 | underlay |
| American Pharoah | 5-2 | 2.9 | overlay |
| California Chrome | 5-2 | 2.5 | same |
| Orb | 7-2 | 5.4 | overlay |
| I'll Have Another | 12-1 | 15.3 | overlay |
| Animal Kingdom | 30-1 | 20.9 | underlay |
| Super Saver | 15-1 | 8 | underlay |
| Mine That Bird | 50-1 | 50.6 | overlay |
*Pari-mutuel winner
Below we take a closer look at how the biggest bet-downs of the past 13 years have fared.
| Horse | Morning Line | Final Odds | % Change | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midnight Bourbon | 20-1 | 13.2 | 34 | 6th |
| Money Moves | 30-1 | 13.1 | 56.3 | 13th |
| Maximum Security | 10-1 | 4.5 | 55 | 1st- DQ to 17th |
| My Boy Jack | 20-1 | 6.7 | 67.6 | 5th |
| Patch | 30-1 | 14.1 | 53 | 14th |
| Exaggerator | 8-1 | 5.1 | 36.3 | 2nd |
| Ocho Ocho Ocho | 50-1 | 26.1 | 47.8 | 14th |
| Candy Boy | 20-1 | 9.4 | 53 | 13th |
| Vyjack | 50-1 | 18.8 | 62.4 | 18th |
| Done Talking | 50-1 | 39.4 | 21.2 | 14th |
| Pants on Fire | 20-1 | 8 | 60 | 9th |
| Backtalk | 50-1 | 23.1 | 53.8 | 20th |
| Chocolate Candy | 20-1 | 10 | 50 | 5th |
Here is a closer look at how the biggest overlays in the past 13 years have fared.
| Horse | Morning Line | Final Odds | % Change | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keepmeinmind | 20-1 | 49 | 59.2 | 7th |
| Honor A. P. | 5-1 | 7.6 | 34.3 | 4th |
| Bodexpress | 30-1 | 71 | 57.8 | 13th |
| Solomini | 30-1 | 62.9 | 52.3 | 10th |
| J Boys Echo | 20-1 | 47.3 | 57.8 | 15th |
| Shagaf | 20-1 | 56 | 64.3 | DNF |
| Tencendur | 30-1 | 52.3 | 42.7 | 17th |
| Tapiture | 15-1 | 35.2 | 57.4 | 15th |
| Will Take Charge | 20-1 | 36.4 | 45.1 | 8th |
| Prospective | 30-1 | 57.9 | 48.2 | 18th |
| Shackleford | 12-1 | 23 | 47.9 | 4th |
| Conveyance | 12-1 | 27 | 55.6 | 15th |
| Advice | 30-1 | 49 | 38.8 | 13th |
Over the past 13 years there have been six winners that were overlaid compared to the morning line, six that were bet down and one whose line remained the same. It is interesting that over this span the winner has never been the horse whose line shows the most movement in either direction. The closest exception came in 2019 when Maximum Security was bet heavily, but was disqualified after crossing the wire first, leaving Country House, the second biggest overlay in the field as the winner.
History has shown that horses in the Kentucky Derby get bet down or overlaid for a variety of reasons that do not always revolve around form. Storylines, such as a one-eyed horse, a funny name, and connections of a runner can lead to line movement that may not indicate the ability of a horse. Do your research and stick with your intuition. The Kentucky Derby is not the race to look for clues on the tote board.