Aqueduct: Flavien Prat dominates jockeys in New York

Photo: Jason Moran / Eclipse Sportswire

Flavien Prat has seized control of the Aqueduct jockey standings, capped by a 14-win week that included five victories on Sunday.

Through the first month of the meet, Prat has compiled 31 wins from 81 starts. His 38.3% win rate leads all riders with significant mounts, and his 46.8% HRN Impact shows he consistently outperforms the odds.

Manuel Franco holds second with 14 victories, and his -3.2% HRN Impact suggests bettors have shown confidence in his mounts. José Lezcano rounds out the top three with 12 wins and a 53.2% HRN Impact, rewarding those who back him.

Kendrick Carmouche matches Lezcano with 12 wins, and his 1.1% HRN Impact indicates he performs roughly to expectations. Ricardo Santana Jr. has tallied eight wins, but his -21.4% HRN Impact signals bettors may be overvaluing his chances.

Jockey Starts Wins Win % HRN
Impact
Flavien Prat 81 31 38.3% 46.8%
Manuel Franco 86 14 16.3%  -3.2%
Jose Lezcano 62 12 19.4% 53.2%
Kendrick Carmouche 69 12 17.4%   1.1%
Ricardo Santana, Jr. 82   8   9.8% -21.4%
Javier Castellano 49   5 10.2% -12.8%
Christopher Elliott 53   5   9.4%    6.6%
Jaime Rodriguez 60   4   6.7% -21.3%
Ruben Silvera 40   4 10.0%   0.7%
John Velazquez 29   4 13.8%  -9.5%
Junior Alvarado 25   3 12.0% -34.2%
Joel Rosario 14   2 14.3% -23.2%

Prat dominates main track

Prat's dominance carries over to the main track, where he tops the standings with 18 wins and a 40.0% win rate. His dirt performance runs 41.0% above expectations, rewarding backers who trust him on the surface.

Manuel Franco and Kendrick Carmouche share second on dirt with 10 wins apiece. Franco carries a 15.5% HRN Impact, but Carmouche edges him at 21.5%, proving more profitable for his backers.

Jose Lezcano has found success on dirt with nine wins, delivering a strong 51.8% HRN impact. Several riders with limited opportunities have posted solid results, including Omar Hernandez Moreno, who won once from nine main-track starts with a 351.8% HRN impact.

Jockey Dirt
starts
Dirt
wins
Win % HRN
Impact
Flavien Prat 45 18   40.0%   41.0%
Manuel Franco 50 10   20.0%   15.5%
Kendrick Carmouche 40 10   25.0%   21.5%
Jose Lezcano 40   9   22.5%   51.8%
Christopher Elliott 28   4   14.3%     7.6%
Ricardo Santana, Jr. 50   3     6.0%  -56.9%
Junior Alvarado 11   3   27.3%    50.7%
Joel Rosario   9   2   22.2%    -1.0%
Sahin Civaci 11   2   18.2%    46.9%
Ruben Silvera 26   2     7.7%   -24.6%
Jaime Rodriguez 34   2     5.9%   -42.6%
Luis Rivera, Jr. 21   1     4.8%   -49.6%
Dylan Davis 11   1     9.1%   -21.7%
Javier Castellano 21   1     4.8%   -64.7%
Jorge Panaijo 4   1   25.0%  790.6%
John Velazquez 10   1   10.0%   -46.3%
Omar Hernandez Moreno 9   1   11.1%  351.8%
Florent Geroux 1   1 100.0%  164.3%
Eric Cancel 13   0     0.0% -100.0%

Prat dominance continues on grass

Prat's grip extends to the turf, where he leads with 13 wins and a 36.1% win rate. His 55.6% HRN Impact on grass matches his main track profitability.

Ricardo Santana Jr. has found more success on turf than dirt with five wins and a 54.9% HRN impact. Manuel Franco has four turf wins but with a -31.2% HRN impact, suggesting his turf mounts have drew heavy bettor support.

Several jockeys have delivered strong turf value despite limited opportunities. Samuel Marin has one turf win with a 95.5% HRN impact. John Velazquez has only managed three wins on grass with a 17.2% HRN impact from 19 starts.

Jockey Turf
Starts
Turf
Wins
Win % HRN
Impact
Flavien Prat 36 13 36.1%     55.6%
Ricardo Santana, Jr. 32   5 15.6%     54.9%
Javier Castellano 28   4 14.3%     37.8%
Manuel Franco 36   4 11.1%    -31.2%
Jose Lezcano 22   3 13.6%     57.4%
John Velazquez 19   3 15.8%     17.2%
Kendrick Carmouche 29   2   6.9%   -45.1%
Ruben Silvera 14   2 14.3%     51.4%
Jaime Rodriguez 26   2   7.7%     25.1%
Luis Rivera, Jr. 21   1   4.8%    -24.6%
Christopher Elliott 25   1   4.0%       2.8%
Samuel Marin   5   1 20.0%     95.5%
Axel Concepcion   2   1 50.0%   512.1%
Dylan Davis 17   0   0.0% -100.0%
Junior Alvarado 14   0   0.0% -100.0%
Jose Antonio Gomez   3   0   0.0% -100.0%
Lane Luzzi   6   0   0.0% -100.0%
Eric Cancel   6   0   0.0% -100.0%
Trevor Simpson   5   0   0.0% -100.0%

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