Apple Blossom fair odds: Who could upset Thorpedo Anna?

It feels weird to give Thorpedo Anna a 62.5% chance of winning the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap on Saturday at Oaklawn knowing she will be an underlay, but so it goes with the horse of the year on a three-race win streak.

The key word there is "handicap," as the four or five pounds she gives to her two key rivals does not exactly level the racing surface. But it at least gives the connections of Free Like a Girl and Where's My Ring some hope of upsetting the champion Breeders' Cup Distaff winner.

Thorpedo Anna returned from an about three months off after the Breeders' Cup to win the Azeri Stakes (G2) gate-to-wire at 1-10. Free Like a Girl chased Thorpedo Anna around that day and gave two pounds to the champion, so the Apple Bloosom's four-pound difference is a six-pound swing. 

Will that be enough to turn the tables? Probably not, but we're talking about a horse whose fair odds are 10-1, so she is worth a long-shot look. Jockey Julian Leparoux just upset the Madison Stakes (G1) on Tuesday at Keeneland, winning at 14-1, so maybe he has another track in his tack. It is unlikely that Free Like a Girl can go with Thorpedo Anna on the front end, but if anyone else does, maybe Free Like a Girl gets first run to the upset.

Where's My Ring holds some interest as the second choice, but the 5-2 morning line would be a little light against my fair odds of 4-1. I picked Where's My Ring in last year's Kentucky Oaks, which Thorpedo Anna won, so I guess if I thought she could win that day then she is at least worth a look here after the best performance of her career last month in an optional-claiming allowance.

That was a gate-to-wire performance, though, which not only was a new style for her but also not the manner in which this race is likely to be won by her. So there are mixed signals on the quality of that win last out, but if she drifts in price and you want to take on the champ then at least there is a race to point to that is as good as Thorpedo Anna's average.

And that is what it boils down to. Can Free Like a Girl or Where's My Ring run the race of their life while Thorpedo Anna just maintains form and does not move forward at all second off the layoff? Again, probably not, and that's why Thorpedo Anna will be 2-5.

As for the others in here, kudos to Oaklawn to getting a half-dozen to take on the reigning horse of the year. But any horse not discussed would truly be a surprise and an upset of epic proportion.