Apple Blossom Handicap 2020: Odds and analysis

Need-the-lead horses can prove a headache because of their inability to adapt to different pace scenarios. In Serengeti Empress’ case, all four of her graded stakes wins came on the front end, and she seems set in her ways.

With those thoughts in mind, Serengeti Empress looks like a vulnerable favorite in Saturday’s Grade 1, $600,000 Apple Blossom Handicap. A full field of 14 fillies and mares are scheduled to travel 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park. If they all start, Serengeti Empress will face plenty of other early speed.

The Apple Blossom is carded as Race 10 with a post time of 6:16 p.m. ET. Here’s a full-field rundown with projected odds via Horse Racing Nation.

1. Ollie’s Candy, 12-1 (Candy Ride – John Sadler/Joel Rosario – 11: 4-3-2): With some reluctance, this 5-year-old mare is my top choice. Forgive the Beholder Mile (G1) effort, as she faded to third off a layoff. Prior to that race, she turned in a fine performance in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, finishing fourth after chasing Serengeti Empress’ fast pace closely. TimeformUS marked the first two fractions in red. Furthermore, she projects to save ground on both turns in this spot. Is she fast enough? That is a fair question. But she only finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Serengeti Empress in the Distaff, and that filly will start favored here. Ollie’s Candy makes sense as a better value. The pick.

2. Coldwater, 50-1 (Hold Me Back – Peter Eurton/Walter De La Cruz – 11: 2-3-0): Given she only won a starter allowance at Santa Anita by a head in her most recent start, it is hard to tell why her new trainer Peter Eurton thinks this is a good spot. Perhaps Coldwater impressed the connections in the morning. Based off that starter allowance, though, endorsing her for any superfecta spot is difficult. Toss.

3. Awe Emma, 30-1 (War Front – Dallas Stewart/Corey Lanerie – 9: 4-0-0): Back this soon? Awe Emma took a local allowance optional claimer on April 5. Prior to that, she dumped her rider in the Azeri Stakes (G2) before chasing Serengeti Empress unofficially in second until the far turn. This filly owns plenty of speed, although she rated a bit to win that recent optional claimer at one mile. Stretching back out to 1 1/16 miles will make it difficult to sit off horses. With Serengeti Empress and Cookie Dough lined up outside, she is likely to be compromised. Toss. 

4. Come Dancing, 6-1 (Malibu Moon – D. Wayne Lukas/Florent Geroux – 14: 8-2-0): Obviously, this 6-year-old mare loves to win. She took the Ballerina Stakes (G1) last summer at Saratoga as well as the Gallant Bloom Stakes (G2) and Ruffian Stakes (G2). But there are some questions, including whether she can hold form under new trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Also, how will she handle a two-turn route? Her runner-up finish in the 1 1/16-mile Ogden Phipps Stakes came around one turn. As a last strike, she only shows two workouts since the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Right now, she is an underlay until those questions are answered. Toss. 

5. Point of Honor, 12-1 (Curlin – George Weaver/Drayden Van Dyke – 7: 3-3-0): This 4-year-old filly burned money in her return at Tampa Bay Downs. Sent off at 3/5 in a seven-furlong handicap race, she could only manage a flat second by four lengths. The winner, J. P.’s Delight, returned to finish seventh in a Gulfstream allowance. But Point of Honor stands to improve in her second start off the bench. She displayed good form last year when winning the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and finishing runner-up in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama Stakes (G1). The odds will provide enough value to include her in some fashion. Use underneath.

6. Street Band, 12-1 (Istan – Larry Jones/Sophie Doyle – 15: 5-0-4): For some reason, the public has over-bet Street Band in her two starts to open 2020. At 2-1, she hung in the stretch of the Houston Ladies Classic Stakes (G3) and ran third. Next, she faded to a distant fourth in the Azeri, 8 ¼ lengths behind Serengeti Empress. Her big win in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) last year came after a suicidal pace too. She might get another setup in this spot, but search elsewhere for the winner with this a deeper group than she beat. Use underneath.

7. Queen Nekia, 20-1 (Harlington – Saffie Joseph Jr./David Cohen – 24: 8-5-7): Under Saffie Joseph Jr., this mare looks like a new runner. Back in January, she took a Gulfstream allowance optional claimer with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. After that, she closed for a good third in the Royal Delta Stakes (G3) with a 111. Prior to those races, she only broke 100 on TimeformUS three times in 22 starts. What changed? Given her new form with a different trainer, Queen Nekia may turn in another nice performance for a piece at a decent price. Use underneath.

8. Saracosa, 30-1 (Bernardini – Cipriano Contreras/Martin Garcia – 15: 2-4-6): In Saracosa’s two starts this year, she finished fifth by 9 ½ lengths in the Houston Ladies Classic and third by seven lengths in the Azeri. Granted, she made up some ground in the Azeri and passed both Street Band and Lady Apple. But those two fillies likely did not show up with their best efforts after Serengeti Empress flattened the field with her blazing speed. On paper, Saracosa appears overmatched. Toss.

9. Horologist, 20-1 (Gemologist – Richard Baltas/Tyler Baze – 14: 5-2-3): This one lost the Nellie Morris Stakes at Laurel by just a nose in her most recent start. TimeformUS gave Horologist a lofty 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, but it’s common for Laurel runners to fail to carry their numbers to other tracks. Earlier in the year, she finished fifth in the La Canada Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. That effort is forgivable as her first start of the season. Last September, she actually posted a nice race in the Cotillion to finish third after sitting close to the suicidal pace. If she brings that kind of effort to this spot, Horologist can grab a piece of the pie. Live longshot.

10. Cookie Dough, 12-1 (Brethren – Saffie Joseph Jr./Abel Cedillo – 13: 3-3-4): While she ran well to win the Royal Delta at Gulfstream, her upfront running style will not help her in a race with Serengeti Empress and Awe Emma lined up. Only consider this speedy filly if one or both of those rivals scratch. Toss.

11. Serengeti Empress, 3-1 (Alternation – Tom Amoss/Joe Talamo – 14: 6-3-1): After a long losing streak, Serengeti Empress finally won again in the Azeri Stakes against a couple of rivals she sees again here. She went to the front and stayed there, drawing clear by seven lengths late. The early margins in the running line might look deceiving, as a riderless Awe Emma chased her in second until at least the far turn. The problem with Serengeti Empress is that she absolutely needs the lead. Even her best losing efforts came after setting the pace, as she showed in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Test Stakes (G1). Despite some familiar faces, she also meets other speed types in Awe Emma and Cookie Dough this time. She remains a threat, but those two could weaken her enough to lose. Only upgrade her on top if one or two of the other speed horses scratch. Use underneath.

12. Go Google Yourself, 15-1 (Into Mischief – Paul McGee/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 19: 7-5-3): This hard-trying 5-year-old mare recently won the Bayakoa Stakes (G2) by a head over Whoa Nellie with a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Whoa Nellie had displayed prior good form by picking up a win in the Pippin Stakes by 4 ½ lengths. Nevertheless, Go Google Yourself has always been a step below the best fillies and mares. As with many of these, she is capable of hitting the board. But the winner is likely to come from one of the established Grade 1-level horses. Use underneath.

13. Lady Apple, 12-1 (Curlin – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 13: 6-2-1): What happened in the Azeri? After turning in a great effort on Jan. 26 to win the Houston Ladies Classic by half a length over Serengeti Empress, she regressed over the slop and finished fifth, 20 lengths behind the same opponent. Perhaps getting back over fast dirt will help. But it is notable Lady Apple broke her maiden over slop early last year, suggesting the surface was not the issue. In the Houston Ladies Classic, she also enjoyed a dream run when Serengeti Empress’ rider allowed the rail to open up in the stretch. This is also a tough post for a horse that cannot clear the field before the first turn. Toss.

14. Ce Ce, 9/2 (Elusive Quality – Michael McCarthy/Victor Espinoza – 5: 3-1-0): While this is also a tough post position, Ce Ce is on the upswing after taking a Santa Anita allowance optional claimer by 4 ¼ lengths easily and the Beholder Mile by 3 ¼ lengths. In the latter race, she went four-wide around the first turn and overcame the ground loss. Now, she will need to overcome running wide again on the first turn. But the talent is there to overcome the bad post. As for the slight stretch out in distance, she is a half-sister to the stakes router Papa Clem. With Post 10 or lower, she probably gets the top endorsement in this analysis. With this draw, though, it is a tough call. At a minimum, she deserves a spot in horizontals. Win contender.

Conclusion: Ollie’s Candy draws an inside post and offers the right credentials as the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) winner at Del Mar last summer. She also offers the right value, as most of the public’s money will go toward Serengeti Empress and the rising star Ce Ce. Expect this mare to sit behind the speed and strike early on the far turn.

With that said, Ce Ce is a talented filly who overcame a wide first turn in the Beholder Mile. She can also sit behind horses, whereas Serengeti Empress cannot.

Both Ollie’s Candy and Ce Ce are the horses to use, with the former preferred because of the value and potential to move forward.