Apple Blossom fair odds: The horse to use with Adare Manor

Let's rip the bandage right off. Adare Manor is very clearly the most likely winner of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Apple Blossom Handicap on Saturday at Oaklawn and actually would offer a lot of value at her 9-5 morning-line price.

The rub, of course, is she is more likely to be 3-5 let alone 6-5. I think she wins this race 50 percent of the time, which make her fair value at even money. I have the next tier of horses at 8-1, 9-1 and 10-1, which is between 9 and 11 percent to win. In other words, Adare Manor is five times more likely to win than the second-most likely winner and is as likely to win as the next five contenders.

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So, what is the opportunity with such an imposing yet underlaid force

Taxed is the fourth choice on the morning line but pretty much the co-second choice on my fair-odds line. She is 5-1 on the morning line vs. 10-1 on my fair-odds line. Considering Adare Manor is likely to be odds-on, and since I don't see how Wet Paint isn't the second choice, I think there is opportunity here with Taxed. She looked awesome in her 4-year-old debut when sprinting and has every right to improve stretching back out to a distance at which she won graded stakes.

I was a bit surprised to see Honor D Lady as the third choice on the morning line. That opens things up for Shotgun Hottie, 12-1 on the morning line, to offer some value as well especially with Wet Paint not appearing on any of my tickets.

Based on the odds I'm anticipating, I'm planning to key Taxed and Shotgun Hottie with Adare Manor, and I'll also box those three as sort of an insanity insurance policy against a Taxed-Shotgun Hottie exacta. It's worth $2.