Churchill Downs Friday: 5 things you need to know

Horse Racing Nation has several analytical reports available for each racing day providing insights not available anywhere else. Here are the analytics that stood out the most.

First-timer power ratings

• Race 3: Viking (8-1) and World Chaos (6-1) are both three-star runners (3-star win rate: 8.9 percent)
• Race 4: Allied Commander (15-1) and Gypsy Dreaming (8-1) are both four-star runners (4-star win rate: 12.4 percent)

Sire surface and distance moves

• Race 7: Harvest n'Hearth (15-1) - McKinzie progeny improve from 15 percent at dirt sprints to 30 percent at dirt routes (109 percent increase)
• Race 9: Shiloh's Mistress (3-1) - Vino Rosso offspring improve from nine percent at turf routes to 17 percent at dirt routes (93 percent increase)
• Race 5: Girl of My Dreams (6-1) - Kantharos progeny improve from 10 percent at turf routes to 17 percent at dirt sprints (71 percent increase)

• Race 9: Berna Ditty (20-1) - Bernardini offspring drop from 17 percent at dirt routes to nine percent at turf routes (50 percent decrease)
• Race 10: Halfway Tempted (5-1) - Yoshida progeny decline from 15 percent at dirt sprints to eight percent at dirt routes (43 percent decrease)

Power Picks analysis

• Race 6: Pinfire (3-1) scores 19 points higher than the second pick
• Race 7: Morlock (4-1) scores four points higher than the next pick

• Race 4: Canisius (8-1)
• Race 9: Irish Patsy (8-1)

Pace analysis

• Race 1: Pace score of 69 - likely to produce a faster pace that may favor closers
• Race 5: Pace score of 57 - has potential to develop into a quicker pace scenario

• Race 8: Pace score of 11 - projects to be a slow pace favoring frontrunners and pace pressers
• Race 10: Pace score of 18 - could develop into a slower-paced race benefiting early speed

Best value plays, based on AI odds versus morning line:

• Race 1: Vamos Carlitos - AI-projected odds of 2-1 (5-1 ML)
• Race 4: J David - AI-projected odds of 2-1 (3-1 ML)
• Race 5: Obstreperous - AI-projected odds of 2-1 (3-1 ML)

• Race 7: Scorpius (3-1 ML) - Fair odds indicate better value than AI-projected odds
• Race 8: G T Five Hundred (5-1 ML) - AI projects odds drop to 4-1 with fair odds at 7-2
• Race 10: Phreddie Mac (3-1 ML) - Fair odds suggest better value than AI projected 7-2