Analyzing 6 potential Breeders' Cup singles
At almost every Breeders' Cup, at least a couple of high-priced winners ensure fruitful payoffs in multi-race wagers. The best way to catch one of these prices is by successfully figuring out which races to spread in and which races to single.
[Breeders’ Cup draw: See post positions, jockeys, odds]
Not all favorites are created equal during the Breeders' Cup. There will be as many horses under 9-5 this weekend as in any Breeders' Cup in recent memory. Below we analyze which potential singles are solid and which runners are vulnerable to an upset.
Echo Zulu, Juvenile Fillies: Steve Asmussen's filly has been electric thus far in her career. In a six-horse field, it is hard to fault anyone who chooses to single her. She is a must-use, but I am equally intrigued by JuJu's Map. Unlike the favorite, she owns a win over the distance and at two turns. She took plenty of heat at Keeneland and put all the other speed away in an impressive win.
Verdict: Echo Zulu makes plenty of sense because she does not have to overcome a big field like other potential singles might. Her speed likely will keep her out of trouble against only five rivals. I will not single Echo Zulu, however, as I feel there is not as much of a talent gap between her and JuJu's Map as many think and the experience that JuJu's Map has at two turns is extremely valuable.
Mise En Scene, Juvenile Fillies Turf: In a race where one could go many directions, I love this European filly in this spot. She won her first race convincingly around a left-handed turn. She gobbled up the ground impressively to win her second start in a race that made it clear she would love any added distance. She got an opportunity to stretch out in a Group 1 event last time and was behind horses with nowhere to go for most of the race. She finished well once she got out. She lost by a nose to Catchet, who had a perfect trip and finished ahead of Wild Beauty – who thumped morning-line favorite Pizza Bianca at Woodbine.
Verdict: Bettors may spread in this race more than any other Breeders' Cup race. If you do not like one horse, you could easily end up going six deep without blinking in here. With a 5-1 favorite, I feel about the same about horses two through six in my selections. That is why it makes sense to single Miss En Scene and hope for a clean trip. If so, it creates huge leverage going forward in the rest of any sequence surrounding this filly.
Gamine, Filly & Mare Sprint: It is tough to go against a filly who is 9-for-10 lifetime, especially one who dominated this race last year. She appears to be slightly slower than last year, but it is hard to say whether she has been fully cranked for all of her races with this always the ultimate goal. This six-horse field has only two horses who could beat her. Bella Sofia, who is drawn well outside, truly could be this good. If she continues her improving pattern, she will at least put a scare in Gamine. CeCe is not fast enough to win this race on paper, but she is a solid mare and is the horse that will take advantage if Bella Sofia and Gamine happen to hook up and set wicked fast fractions.
Verdict: Gamine will be hard to beat, but she will be singled on many tickets and value is available if you are able to defeat her. I recommend playing multiple tickets in sequences involving Gamine. One ticket singling her and spreading more in the surrounding races. Another ticket playing Gamine, Bella Sofia and CeCe to make sure you check this race off your ticket and thin out elsewhere.
Life Is Good, Dirt Mile: This colt has been destined for big things since his debut, and he will look to finally pick up his first Grade 1 win in the Dirt Mile. I have little against the speedy Life Is Good in this spot, but I also really like Ginobili as well. He has become a new horse since adding blinkers, loves Del Mar, and it appears a two-turn mile is the perfect distance for him. He has been freshened for a big performance.
Verdict: Life Is Good certainly can win at a short price, but I am not going to let Ginobili beat me. Play both in the Dirt Mile and advance to the next race.
Jackie's Warrior, Sprint: This year's Sprint field does not appear to be overly strong, and Jackie's Warrior is a special colt. He has eight wins in nine starts around one turn and seems to be getting better and better. There is other speed in the race, but not as much as one would think for the Sprint. He is directly outside of his main pace rival Following Sea and should be able to dictate things going just six furlongs.
Verdict: Look for a statement win from Steve Asmussen's colt in this spot. He is the strongest single of the entire Breeders' Cup.
Golden Pal, Turf Sprint: Wesley Ward's colt was great last year, but has he gotten any better this year? After a nice win at Saratoga, he was nowhere to be seen overseas and proceeded to get the job done at Keeneland with low speed figures. In fact, his only career Beyers over 90 have come at Saratoga. Maybe he likes Saratoga better than anywhere else? He will have plenty of company on the front end here and will be the favorite based on reputation, though he is not the fastest runner in the race.
Verdict: Golden Pal is a nice horse that deserves consideration, but he certainly is not a single as there are four or five other horses, led by Emaraaty Ana and Kimari, who look just as strong in this wide-open race.