Analysis, selections for Saratoga's all-stakes Pick 5

For all the years I have been coming to Saratoga, I’ve never been there for Travers Day. I wish I had a cool anecdote from a day at the track for Travers Day where I singled Arrogate to win it all, but I don’t have one.

When I used to make the trip with my grandfather, he used to say Travers Day was too busy and hectic for him, so we never went, and my friends and I are usually more interested in spending our money on big tickets rather than paying up to stay in town for Travers weekend. Still, this is one of the biggest race days of the year, comparable to Kentucky Derby Day, Belmont Stakes Day, and the Breeder’s Cup. 7 graded stakes, 6 of them of the Grade 1 variety, and a mandatory P5 with all G1s. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Before playoff games, one of my old football coaches said, “If you need a pregame speech to get your blood pumping for this game, you’re already dead.” Travers Day is the playoffs for any horse racing fan or handicapper, so even though I don’t have a Travers Day story, it shouldn’t matter.

Race 8: $600,000 Forego Stakes (G1)

#3 Lexitonian was my sneaky big-ticket add-on last out in the G1 Vanderbilt, and he delivered at a massive price (34-1). Tactically, the horse has changed styles dramatically from a stalker/closer type to an on the pace runner. To me, this race is screaming speed across the board.

Lexitonian should go, #7 Yaupon is going, and #6 Chance It, #3 Mind Control and #1 Mischevious Alex all could go as well. I hate to say it because I know I am going to bite my tongue later, but this race couldn’t set up better for #2 Whitmore.

I know his regular rider, Ricardo Santana Jr., jumps off to ride Yaupon, but Joel Rosario on a closer going 7F just feels like the right spot. He’s my top selection in here and I expect him to come rolling up the rail in the stretch. I’m a little surprised to see Yaupon stretched out to 7F, but he’s hard to ignore with some of his gaudy speed figures, so he’ll be on my ticket as well.

The heart Lexitonian showed to pull off the upset in the Vanderbilt, coupled with his strong showing in the Churchill Downs Stakes at 7F makes me a believer here as well.

For the big ticket, I also added in Mischevious Alex and Mind Control. I know it has been a tough meet for the Saffie Joseph barn, but this horse is going to bounce back after an extremely disappointing Vanderbilt. Mind Control also matched a career-best Beyer in his first run for the Todd Pletcher barn, and if he steps forward at all, he’s going to be right in it at the wire. 

Big Ticket Option: 1,2,3,4,7

Thrifty Ticket Option: 2,3,7

Race 8: $500,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (G1)

I know that #1 Drain the Clock was impressive two back when upsetting the Woody Stephens at Belmont, but #2 Jackie’s Warrior ran him off his feet last out in such a dominating way that I have no faith that the Saffie Joseph trainee can turn the tables in this one.

What’s scary is that Joel Rosario had Jackie’s Warrior wrapped up for the final 1/16th of a mile in the Amsterdam, and he still put up a 7+ length win and a 102 Beyer figure. In most worlds, that would make him the easy single here.

However, #6 Life Is Good has returned from his layoff and now runs for the Todd Pletcher barn after tearing up the west coast Derby trail before getting injured. The colt is 3 for 3 with some eye-catching performances, and if he returns in similar form to earlier this year, he’s going to be a tough out. I think it would be wise for the other four horses to stay back and let the two machines fight it out in this one. There are some nice horses in here, but none of them quite match up with these two freakazoids.

Big Ticket Option: 2,6

Thrifty Ticket Option: 2,6

Race 9: $600,000 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1)

First off, let me just say that I am thoroughly disappointed we likely won’t be seeing another Monomoy Girl-Letruska stretch battle this year. I am still holding out hope that Brad Cox gets Monomoy Girl back for the Breeders’ Cup, but it’s currently looking unlikely.

When we get into these premier filly & mare races, I just can’t help but think about Monomoy Girl. Let’s start with the last horse to beat her in #6 Letruska. She’s an obvious selection as she has just gotten better since the Apple Blossom back in April. Only #4 Swiss Skydiver owns a triple digit Beyer on the dirt other than Letruska, who has three in a row. She’s clearly the horse to beat, especially since she’ll be on the front end dictating the pace.

I don’t think there’s a speed horse in here who can run with Letruska, so I am tossing horses like #2 As Time Goes By and #7 Miss Marissa, but I do think they can challenge Letruska on the front end enough to soften her in the stretch drive.

I think the 2 horses that have a chance coming from off the pace are #3 Bonny South and #5 Royal Flag. Toss out Bonny South’s last race where she got absolutely no pace to run into and she can easily be due to bounce back.

Royal Flag won the Shuvee here back in July with a last to first finish, and I think she has a shot to be a factor in here again for Chad Brown & Joel Rosario.

On the big ticket, I have to include #4 Swiss Skydiver, because I’m still scared of her fastball (if she still has it), and #2 As Time Goes By, because if you toss her last start where she stumbled, she’s got plenty of class to lean on in this group. 

Big Ticket Option: 2,3,4,5,6

Thrifty Ticket Option: 3,5,6

Race 10: $750,000 Sword Dancer Stakes (G1)

The Sword Dancer is one of my favorite races every year and I love that it shows up here on Travers Day. #4 Channel Maker & #7 Cross Border are still representing the old guard of Sword Dancers past, but the new guard is packing plenty of punch this year as well.

Let’s start with #1 Tribhuvan (FR), who since coming over to the US for Chad Brown has 3 triple-digit Beyers in 6 starts, including a front-running score in the G1 United Nations last out at Monmouth Park. He figured to be the early pacesetter and has shown that he can hold a lead. With Flavien Prat aboard, you have to respect his chances.

What might be concerning for the likely race favorite is the surprising amount of speed here. Channel Maker, when at his best, is running on the lead, and #5 Moretti, a surprising entry from the Todd Pletcher barn, is also likely to be gunning for the lead.

It’s a 12-furlong race, so they won’t be blazing along, but the likely traffic on the front-end should give you pause for the pacesetters.

I think the biggest beneficiary is #2 Gufo out of the Christophe Clement barn, who has done some of his best racing in these marathon distances. I love his chances coming down the stretch with a full head of steam.

Finally, on the big ticket, I included #7 Cross Border, who smoked me in the Bowling Green for the 2nd straight year a few weeks back. At the end of the day, you can’t ignore a horse who has 7 starts on the Saratoga turf and 6 wins. I don’t think he’s as talented as the other 2 horses I’ve got on top, but sometimes you can’t argue with results.

Big Ticket Option: 1,2,7

Thrifty Ticket Option: 1,2

Race 11: $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1)

So here we are again just like on Jim Dandy Day, staring down the barrel of a potential single in #2 Essential Quality. He’s clearly going to be the odds-on favorite, and there’s not much tactically anyone can do to knock him out of that top spot. He’s just proven to be so versatile that he’s impossible to ignore.

From a pace scenario stance, I don’t really see anyone that’s going to give #1 Midnight Bourbon a hard time on the front end, except for maybe #6 Masqueparade, but the pace shouldn’t be fast regardless.

Could I see Midnight Bourbon getting away on the lead and having enough to hold on in the stretch? No. I really like the Steve Asmussen trainee, but he’s had too many chances to get over the wire first and hasn’t been able to pull it off since the Lecomte back in January.

If it’s going to be anyone, they’ll be rating along with Essential Quality from behind. #3 Keepmeinmind is another one who I’ve seen too many times come up short against Essential Quality (5 races, 0 placings ahead of Essential Quality), so he’s a toss for me, especially after he got a dream trip in the Jim Dandy and still couldn’t pull it off. If I’m taking a shot, it’s going to be with the 2 coming out of the Curlin Stakes back on July 30th.

Both #4 Dynamic One & #5 Miles D were impressive in that race. Irad Ortiz & Flavien Prat are aboard respectively, and it’s not often you’ll see 6-1 & 12-1 on horses ridden by those 2. I am including both on the big ticket, but Essential Quality is far and away the horse to beat, and I foresee this race as a coronation for him as champion 3-year-old.

Big Ticket Option: 2,4,5

Thrifty Ticket Option: 2

FINAL Big Ticket: 1,2,3,4,7/2,6/2,3,4,5,6/1,2,7/2,4,5 ($225)

FINAL Thrift Ticket: 2,3,7/2,6/3,5,6/1,2/2 ($18)

No matter where you fall on these races, it is going to be another amazing Saturday in Saratoga.