Geller: Queen's Plate provides a tough puzzle for bettors
If ever a filly was in the zone right now, it is Curlin's Voyage. Last season's 2-year-old champion filly in Canada has matured into quite the powerhouse, following up her first-out second this season with back-to-back stakes wins in the Fury Stakes and the Woodbine Oaks.
In recent years, the Woodbine Oaks has produced several Queen's Plate winners such as Lexie Lou, Holy Helena and Wonder Gadot.
Curlin's Voyage is a large striding filly who can produce a long sustained run. Her strength and stamina are huge assets at the mile and a quarter distance. Jockey Patrick Husbands has enjoyed good success on her and from gate ten should have options to relax her into a good spot. She is 5/2 on morning line, but I expect her to start favorite.
On The Rise
Plate Trial winner Clayton is on the rise. His only defeat was a desperately unlucky second in his first-up run as a 3YO when trapped on the rail in a muddled race at 7f for which he atoned the next time out with a facile 1 1/16-miles win.
His subsequent victory in the Plate Trial exposed his inexperience yet at the same time, confirmed his raw talent. Clayton swept past his rivals at the head of the lane. It was only his inability to switch leads that left them a fighting chance.
The question remains as to how mature a 3-year-old needs to be in order to capture the Queen's Plate. A son of Bodemeister, Clayton is making just his fifth lifetime start on Saturday yet appears to have been pointed toward this race ever since his eye-catching 2YO debut.
His greatest asset is his turn of foot that has seen him triumph from any position. Top rider Rafael Hernandez who won the 2015 Queen's Plate on Shaman Ghost takes the call. Clayton has been installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite.
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Closing In
The mile and a quarter distance should suit last start maiden special weight winner, Olliemyboy who is another lightly raced customer with only four career starts. He debuted at Tampa before coming to Woodbine and has woken up in two recent routes. His last to first win going 1 1/8 miles proved his previous second-place finish to Mighty Heart at the 1-1/16M, no fluke.
Having turned the corner, the questions of class and style remain. Just how his form stacks up against stakes winners is the great unknown as well as how far back is too far.
Each of the last five Queen's Plates winners have sat in or close to the first flight. There appears to be sufficient speed signed on for Olliemyboy to target but he will have to weave past tiring horses.
Veteran jockey, Steven Bahen has never been riding better and at 30/1 morning line, Olliemyboy looks like a live longshot for at least a piece of the pie.
Grinding It Out
Trainer, Steve Asmussen won the second and third legs of last year's Canadian Triple Crown, the Prince of Wales and Breeders Stakes with Tonebroke who ran third in the Plate after a troubled start. His representative this season, Halo Again, 5/1 morning line, is no stranger to Woodbine, having won the Coronation Futurity here as a 2YO.
There is nothing flashy about the manner of his stakes wins, having added the Queenston to his record two starts back before grinding out second to Clayton in the Plate Trial. On more than one occasion, Halo Again has looked beaten in the stretch but to his credit has persevered, to turn things around. It was almost a similar scenario in that final prep.
Luis Contreras will partner Halo Again for the first time and has enjoyed good success when riding for Steve Asmussen. Well drawn in gate six, Halo Again could sit a nice trip. If there are cracks in the armour of his main opponents, Halo Again may be able to exploit them with his workmanlike, never-say-die style.
A Marvelous Opportunity
Japanese rider, Kazushi Kimura who has remained a force in the jockey ranks beyond his apprenticeship, has a marvelous opportunity for a good result in his second ever ride in a Queen's Plate.
His mount, Merveilleux, is coming off a somewhat unlucky third to Curlin's Voyage in the Oaks, having been held up in mid-stretch. Nevertheless, the filly finished full of run and is still learning the game. For Kazushi, the Queen's Plate will be the first time on board Merveilleux, her regular rider having committed to stablemate Clayton instead.
Her only poor performance came in her previous start, when fourth in the Selene Stakes, a torrid trip having cost her any hope. That led to the addition of blinkers in the Woodbine Oaks. Merveilleux had sauntered home in her first start off the lay-off going the 1-1/16M and as a 2YO run a close second to Curlin's Voyage, beaten a head in the Ontario Colleen Stakes having finished ahead of her in their prior clash, the Princess Elizabeth.
From gate two, Merveilleux could land in the box seat. She appeared to drop too far out of her ground in the Oaks but has proven previously that she can lay handy. Kazushi Kimura is over the moon about his chances on a filly that has been getting closer to putting it all together. Merveilleux is 10/1 morning line.
Ready to Sign On?
Are you ready to sign on the Dotted Line? This guy is expected to take smart money in the Queen's Plate, as arguably the more seasoned of the Sid Attard pair - Olliemyboy is his stablemate - and with red-hot rider, Justin Stein up.
What has stood out about Dotted Line is his adaptability to the way the race is run. Two starts back, Dotted Line came bounding home from a fair way off the pace for third in the Marine Stakes to the sensational Shirl's Speight. Next out in the Plate Trial, he found himself on the lead, giving up grudgingly in a three way stretch battle that saw Dotted Line less than a length from the winner, Clayton.
As a 2YO, Dotted Line captured the Kingarvie going gate to wire. He did run fifth to Halo Again in the Queenston but was first-up. The Queen's Plate will be his fourth run back as a 3YO and from gate nine, Justin, a master at getting a horse to relax, is on a live mount who is 8/1 morning line.
What's in a name?
For a rookie, the Queen's Plate may seem like a tall order but if ever there was a case to be made for an upset winner to burst on the scene, it is Belichick, 30/1 morning line.
The highly touted 3YO only began his racing career as recently as July 4, so history may appear to be stacked against him. In that debut on turf, Belichick had a terrible start from the inside gate in a 10 horse field in which he raced greenly throughout. Down the stretch, Belichick closed a good amount of ground to finish third at the 7f trip behind monster filly Shirl's Speight.
The transition to the main track and the 1-1/8M next out was not without issues, Belichick again slowly away, racing a little rank, yet he still fought tooth and nail the length of the stretch for a gallant second, caught in the dying stages by Olliemyboy.
Belichick appears to possess a ton of natural talent. It is not unreasonable to expect a similar step forward from that second lifetime start. A head strong type, he is a physically impressive looking colt by Lemon Drop Kid, one with enough dimension that trainer Josie Carroll has felt to take a shot on, joining Curlin's Voyage and Mighty Heart in a three pronged attack by her barn. Accomplished rider, Slade Callaghan is up from gate three.
Belichick is out to defy the odds. As football fans can vouch, this wouldn't be the first time.
The Undercard
Afleet Katherine ran a gallant second in the Woodbine Oaks, chasing Curlin's Voyage home. Connections chose to bypass the Queen's Plate, opting instead for the Bison City Stakes where she will face other 3YO fillies.
For fans of the Kevin Attard barn, Afleet Katherine may well be the biggest surprise package all season. Her powerful win in her debut against older fillies and mares over 7f on turf at odds of 29/1 was followed up with a similar success next. She transferred that talent to the main track on the stretch out in the Oaks and now steps back to the 1-1/16M on it.
Afleet Katherine will face some fresh faces to Woodbine in two-time Aqueduct winner, Truth Hurts and Gulfstream Park shipper, Pseudonym. Trainer, Catherine Day Phillips bypassed the Woodbine Oaks with Ballrooms of Mars who comes into this race off an unlucky second but with strong recent form, Afleet Katherine remains the horse to beat.
The argument against her is the possibility of a bounce, having run her eyeballs out in the Oaks, an argument that could push her price out just enough to make a win wager worth the while.
A native of England raised in Australia, Robert Geller is the track announcer at Woodbine Race Course.