Analysis: How to bet Saturday's Santa Anita Derby
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Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (G1) features 2-year-old champion Game Winner, beaten a nose in his seasonal bow in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) in a race where the show finisher was eight-plus lengths back.
Game Winner won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last year in his lone try at Santa Anita Park and is an obvious low-odds contender. But Instagrand has a shot to steal this event, and Roadster will be waiting to pounce if that one falters in the final Kentucky Derby prep.
Before choosing how to bet Saturday’s eighth race at Santa Anita, let's analyze the field:
The Favorite
#6 Game Winner (4-5) is the class of the field and could easily beat these. He does not have to win his final Kentucky Derby prep but could easily get the job done for Joel Rosario and Bob Baffert. He figures to stalk the pace from the third or fourth position.
Value Win Contenders
#1 Roadster (5-2) might sit the right tactical trip behind Instagrand and figures to get the jump on his chalky stablemate, Game Winner. He was highly regarded last year and returned with a strong flat mile optional claiming victory on March 1. The $525,000 son of Quality Road fired a local six-furlong bullet for this engagement on March 31 and might offer a hint of value under Mike Smith.
#5 Instagrand (3-1) is probably the one to catch, but I am not sure how far he wants to go. He was sensational in a pair of sprint wins last summer including the Best Pal (G2) and returned with an OK third in the Gotham Stakes (G3) off a long layoff.
Live Longshot
#3 Nolo Contesto (6-1) is slowly improving for John Sadler and projects a decent stalking trip under Joe Talamo. He beat Omaha Beach in a local flat mile maiden race onJan. 4, and that one has won twice since including the second division of the Rebel Stakes. Roadster beat him last time, but he might be fitter in his second start after a layoff.
Remaining Entrants
#2 More Ice (30-1) exits a wide, distant third from post 10 in the El Camino Real Derby and occupied that same spot in the Eddie Logan on turf in his final start as a 2-year-old. He has some ability but is not fast enough to threaten these.
#4 Synthesis (30-1) moves to the George Papaprodromou barn after a distant fourth-place finish in the San Vicente (G2). He graduated in a dirt route at Keeneland last fall and will probably try to get involved early but is not nearly as quick as Instagrand.
Wagering Strategies
#1 to win
Exacta 1-5-6/3
Trifecta Key 1/3-6