Analysis: How to bet Santa Anita's Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Adding to story lines for the Kentucky Derby 2019 prep: There is a good chance of rain on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, and wet tracks in Southern California tend to be speed favoring. There was an off track on Thursday, and six of the eight races were won in front-running fashion.
RELATED: Free Robert B. Lewis past performances
Before choosing how to bet Saturday’s sixth race at 1 1/16 miles, let's analyze the field:
The Favorite
#5 Mucho Gusto (8-5) set the pace and stayed away from the trouble caused by Savagery in the early going in the Los Al Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he ended up a clear second behind his impressive stablemate Improbable. Troubled show finisher Extra Hope looked good winning an optional claiming dirt route on a wet track Thursday. Mucho Gusto might be the controlling speed in this event under Joe Talamo.
Value Win Contenders
#6 Nolo Contesto (5-2) split a 10-horse field after a troubled trip from the inside post in his local dirt sprint debut on Dec. 1. He stretched out in his second start and gamely graduated from the outside post in a local one-mile affair Jan. 4. He projects another outside stalking trip under Joel Rosario and could easily be this good.
Live Longshots
#2 Magnificent McCool (8-1) relaxed and kicked away in a sharp turf route maiden win on Dec. 28. He handles dirt and might be able to step up and compete with these at playable odds. Flavien Prat is 4-for-5 with Doug O’Neill recently, and there is a chance that he will be aggressively handled in this spot.
Remaining Entrants
#1 Kid Cantina (20-1) stretches back out, and he graduated in a one-mile event on the all-weather surface at Golden Gate last fall. He gets a big class and distance test Saturday.
#3 Easy Shot (8-1) followed up an $80,000 maiden claiming sprint score with an OK fifth in the Sham Stakes. He figures to stalk the pace and needs to improve a few lengths to threaten these.
#4 Gunmetal Gray (9-5) got a great setup in the Sham (G3) last time, but I do not see the same above par pace materializing in this race. He also might catch a speed-favoring wet surface and will probably take more win money than he should.
Wagering Strategies
#6 to win
Trifecta 5-6/2-5-6/2-4-5-6
Trifecta key 6/2-4-5