Analysis: Can Happy Saver repeat against Mystic Guide?
The Grade 2 Suburban Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park features a rematch between Happy Saver and Mystic Guide, who were the top two finishers less than a length apart in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) as 3-year-olds.
Mystic Guide comes into the 1 1/4-mile Suburban as the No. 1 ranked horse in the current NTRA top Thoroughbred poll, while Happy Saver is still unbeaten in his career after five starts.
In addition to the winner’s share of the $400,000 purse, the first-place finisher will secure a “win and you’re in” spot in the Breeders Cup’ Classic, which will be run at Del Mar on Nov. 6.
Here is a full field analysis for the Suburban with morning-line odds provided by Horse Racing Nation. The Suburban will be run as race 10 out of 10 with post time
set for 5:44 p.m. EDT.
1. Moretti (8-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Todd Pletcher / Flavien Prat – 12: 4-4-2 - $304,150) This 5-year-old has hit the board in his last eight starts, and that includes three wins in 2020. He made his 2021 debut for Pletcher in the Brooklyn (G2), where he had a distant third-place finish. Last year, he won the marathon Birdstone at Saratoga, the Flat Out at Belmont, and an allowance at Oaklawn Park. He was also second in Suburban behind Tacitus. Clearly, the 10-furlong distance is no problem for Moretti, and he should move forward from his last effort. He is worth using in exotics on the bottom, but this race is typically very fast. Use underneath.
2. Informative (15-1 – Bodemeister – Uriah St. Lewis / Manny Franco – 25: 3-3-0 - $240,290) Trainer Uriah St. Lewis is known for long-shot victories in stakes races. Informative was his latest when that 4-year-old won the Salvator Mile (G3) with a last-to-first rally at odds of 79-1 at Monmouth Park on June 12. St. Lewis won the 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cup with the 45-1 shot Discreet Lover. Informative will be a long shot again in here with the distance and the Grade 1 level seeming to be out of his range. Toss.
3. Prioritize (10-1 – Tizway – H. James Bond / Joel Rosario – 16: 4-2-3 - $329,600) Prioritize moved up to stakes competition in his last three starts for trainer Jimmy Bond when last year he was third in the Woodward Handicap (G1) at Saratoga and fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He made his first start of this year in the Pimlico Special (G3), where he was fifth. Toss.
4. Mystic Guide (1-1 – Ghostzapper – Mike Stidham / Luis Saez – 8: 4-2-2 - $7,513,200) Mystic Guide bolstered his bankroll with his victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and has earnings of more than $7 million. Currently ranked as the top Thoroughbred in the country, the Mike Stidham runner must make his first start since March at Belmont Park where he has finished second twice in two prior tries. In his 2021 debut Mystic Guide romped in the Razorback Handicap (G3) by six lengths on a sloppy track. In his eight-race career the Godolphin homebred has never finished worse than third. It has never been easy for horses to find their best form after trips to the Middle East. He has been training at Fair Hills in Maryland and will ship to Belmont Park on Friday to school in the paddock. Win contender.
5. Max Player (10-1 – Honor Code – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 9: 2-1-2 - $497,500) Max Player has not won a race since the Withers (G3), although he did finish third in the shortened Belmont Stakes (G1) of 2020 and the Travers (G1) while under the care of Linda Rice. He was moved to the barn of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) and was fifth in both. This year Max Player was 11th in the Saudi Cup (G1) and then sixth in the Pimlico Special in May. He has been training in New York, but it has been a long time since he found the winner’s circle. Toss.
6. Happy Saver (9-5 – Super Saver – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 5-0-0 - $326,200) Happy Saver heads into the Suburban still sporting his perfect record in five starts. The son of Super Saver has been carefully handled by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher with his career beginning a little more than a year ago with a more than five-length victory in a maiden special weight at Belmont Park. In every start Happy Saver’s running line was similar, sitting in third at the initial stages of the race, then on or contesting the lead at the stretch call and in front at the wire. The chestnut colt got a stakes win in the Tesio at Laurel in his third start and then won the Jockey Club Gold Cup over Mystic Guide as the 2-1 second choice. Happy Saver returned to the races this year with an easy victory in an allowance May 29 that upped his record at Belmont to 3-for-3. Top choice.
Summary: During the summer as the quality of racing picks up, the 1 1/2-mile oval at Belmont Park can produce some fast times. The past three years the winning time for the Suburban has been faster than two minutes for the 1 1/4 miles. Last year Tacitus won this race in 1:59.51, which was the fastest since the race was moved back to the current distance in 2014.
Now that they are 4-year-olds Happy Saver and Mystic Guide are capable of running the kind of fast time that has been needed to win the Suburban the past few years. If that is the case this could be a thrilling rematch between those two, and the rest of this field is going to have trouble keeping up.
Happy Saver will be the top choice because of his proven form at Belmont Park and since Mystic Guide has not run since winning the Dubai World Cup in March. Moretti looks like the one to also be running at the end of the 10 furlongs.