Analysis: Derby points impacting Preakness Stakes field sizes
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Since Churchill Downs instituted the qualifying points system starting with the Road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby, only favorites have won the first Saturday in May as part of an astonishing six-year streak.
To put six winning favorites into perspective, only four favorites won the Derby in the 13 years prior to the point system (Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Smarty Jones in 2004, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown in 2008). That’s a 30.7% average. To add, there were no winning favorites for 20 years straight between Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Fusaichi Pegasus. So overall, that’s a 9.1% winning average for favorites for the 33 years prior to the Kentucky Derby points system. And now the favorite is a perfect 6-for-6.
While much has been written about the Derby points system and its changes on the race, we are seeing that it is now impacting the Preakness Stakes, too, shrinking fields for the second leg of the Triple Crown series. With fewer connections lining up to run against convincing Derby winners, the Preakness field size has averaged 9.5 starters since 2013.
Preakness needs the Derby favorite to lose for a big field
Looking back, any small fields in the Preakness are almost entirely attributable to convincing Kentucky Derby winners. If we look at the four Derby-winning favorites from 2000-2012, they produced Preakness fields of 8, 10, 9 and 12 for an average of 9.8 per race.
In the nine years the favorite did not win the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness averaged 11.9 horses per race. Having two more horses makes a tremendous difference in the wagering opportunities available in the race.
So if history says that the Preakness is facing a short field should the Derby favorite win, and the Derby favorite winning has become the rule rather than the exception, it looks as if the Preakness is staring at more small fields in the future.
Preakness interest is strong
Handle at Pimlico for the 2018 Preakness was a robust $93,655,128, despite not only the smaller Preakness field but a day filled with rain, a sloppy surface and a multitude of scratches.
“It’s amazing that under the conditions, the fact field size was 6.6 compared to 8.9 the year before and we lost four turf races, our handle was $93 million,” said Sal Sinatra, president and general manager of the Maryland Jockey Club.
He’s absolutely right, and that shows the fan interest out there in betting the Preakness and the Preakness day card. But the data shows the smaller Preakness fields have put a limit on the growth of Preakness handle.
*CDI rounds handle to the nearest $100,000.
That being said, Kentucky Derby handle growth has outpaced the Preakness since 2012. The Derby has grown 21% since 2012, while the Preakness has only grown 16%. That’s not a huge difference, although the Derby was starting with a much larger handle base.
Time to buy some Preakness insurance
But with the trends now clear -- that Derby favorites are winning and producing smaller Preakness fields -- what can Pimlico officials do? For one, create more prep races for the Preakness at the several Stronach group tracks running in April.
This year, Diamond King won the $125,000 Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park on April 21 at 1 1/8 miles. In addition to the 60% winner's share of the purse, the colt received a free entry to the Preakness Stakes, and Diamond King’s connections took advantage. Had he not run in the Preakness, we may have ended up with a historically short seven-horse field.
The Federico Tesio-to-Preakness route has been a popular one over the years as the local prep for the Preakness. In fact, four of the last five Tesio winners have run in the Preakness despite having to face convincing Derby winners.
• Diamond King, 2018
• Awesome Speed, 2016
• Bodhisattva, 2015
• Kid Cruz, 2014
Why not hold Preakness prep stakes races at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park and even Golden Gate Field? This would only help promote and build interest in the Preakness brand.
If every year four horses received automatic Preakness invitations at Stronach-run tracks, that might translate to another horse or two that would be worth significant growth in handle (and purse money). Heck, it might even be worth it to the Maryland horsemen to pay for $100,000 in purse bonuses to run these races at Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Golden Gate. Two more horses in the Preakness could be worth $10,000,000 in additional handle, and maybe more. That would be worth a lot more than $300,000 to the Maryland purse account.
In any event, a stronger Preakness is not only good for Pimlico and the Stronach Group, but for all of racing.
Preakness field size in the Derby points era
Year | Winner | Odds | Odds | Field |
2018 | 3-1* | 2-5 | 8 | |
2017 | Always Dreaming | 9-2* | 6-5 | 10 |
2016 | Nyquist | 2-1* | 3-5 | 11 |
2015 | American Pharoah | 5-2* | 4-5 | 9 |
2014 | California Chrome | 5-2* | 1-2 | 10 |
2013 | Orb | 5-1* | 3-5 | 9 |
But in the 10 years preceding the points system's beginning, the Preakness averaged 11.4 starters per race.
Preakness field size prior to the Derby points
Kentucky Derby | Preakness Stakes | |||
Year | Winner | Odds | Odds | Field |
2012 | I'll Have Another | 15-1 | 3-1 | 11 |
2011 | Animal Kingdom | 20-1 | 2-1 | 14 |
2010 | Super Saver | 8-1 | 9-5 | 12 |
2009 | Mine That Bird | 50-1 | 6-1 | 13 |
2008 | Big Brown | 2-1* | 1-5 | 12 |
2007 | Street Sense | 9-2* | 6-5 | 9 |
2006 | Barbaro | 6-1 | 1-2 | 9 |
2005 | Giacomo | 50-1 | 6-1 | 14 |
2004 | Smarty Jones | 4-1* | 3-5 | 10 |
2003 | Funny Cide | 12-1 | 9-5 | 10 |
Derby and Preakness day handle (2012-2018)
Year | Derby Day | Preakness Day |
2018 | $225,700,000 | $93,655,128 |
2017 | $209,200,000 | $97,168,658 |
2016 | $192,600,000 | $94,127,434 |
2015 | $194,300,000 | $85,160,000 |
2014 | $186,600,000 | $83,786,363 |
2013 | $184,600,000 | $81,939,228 |
2012 | $187,000,000 | $80,463,005 |
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