British expert offers best Euro, Japanese plays for Breeders' Cup
(Editor's note: Nick Godfrey is an award-winning writer who spent nearly three decades with the U.K.-based Racing Post)
Juvenile Turf Sprint
The absence of Royal Ascot winner Quick Suzy after spiking a temperature at the worst time has seriously dented European chances. Even if she had been able to take part, she might have struggled to confirm the form with Wesley Ward’s Twilight Gleaming – and that speedy filly isn’t even her trainer’s first string, as Averly Jane looks well placed to complete a Ward hat-trick after Four Wheel Drive and Golden Pal.
Sure, there are six European runners but similarly sizeable contingents have never been more than bit-part players in three previous editions of this Grade 2 event. Basically, they’ve been run off their feet and there must be chances of that happening again given the nature of the surface at Del Mar.
Of them, Armor is classy and looks clear form choice but hasn’t obviously been crying out for a drop back to a lightning-fast five furlongs.
While others have less form in the book, Hierarchy might outrun likely big odds on the cut back. “This horse is very much a sprinter,” says trainer Hugo Palmer. “He’s a very fast horse and he’s improved with every single run this year.”
Juvenile Fillies Turf
The European record here is nowhere near as good as might be expected given the annual firepower – two wins in 13 races, to be precise. This looks an open-looking contest with no standout from either side of the Atlantic.
Mise En Scene looked the most likely suspect for second-season trainer James Ferguson, the son of Darley/Godolphin stalwart John Ferguson. This Siyouni filly ran better than finishing position suggests when staying-on for fourth after losing position mid-race in the G1 Bet365 Fillies’ Mile at Ascot. The worry is she may just lack the toe for this specific test – and the draw’s not great, either.
Hello You, for whom John Velazquez is booked, has a nice draw and has twice had Friday’s rival Cachet behind her, including latest start in the Rockfel, although that was hardly a vintage renewal.
On balance, this is likely to stay in the US. Without any real confidence, I’d prefer Consumer Spending with a stalk-and-pounce effort for five-time winner Chad Brown, whose barn has been on fire lately after a relatively quiet summer.
With the obvious exception of the Turf, no other BC race has been as kind to transatlantic visitors – though the last two have stayed in the U.S. Special reference must be made to Aidan O’Brien, with four wins and five seconds, including Battleground in 2020, though admittedly he was a third successive beaten favorite for the Ballydoyle maestro since Mendelssohn won here in 2017.
Although O’Brien’s runner Glaunthorne needs to step up, this race offers a huge chance of European success. Bookmakers in Britain don’t have any U.S. horse at a single-figure price, with 12-1 chance Tiz The Bomb rated only fifth favorite, behind four of the five visitors.
Dubawi Legend’s big reputation was confirmed when he was beaten only by Native Trail, the best 2-year-old in Europe, in last month’s Dewhurst Stakes, Britain’s G1 championship event in the division. But for a terrible draw widest of all in gate 14, he would be favorite; as it is, Godolphin’s Modern Games looks the most likely candidate after running on nicely to win a decent G3 race at Newmarket. The son of Dubawi is stable jockey William Buick’s choice ahead of Canadian winner Albahr.
“He’s got a bit of class about him,” says Charlie Appleby (3-for-7 BC record, including two wins in this race.). “He can travel very well so he won’t lack the pace to go round Del Mar."
Looks like a hint well worth taking.
No quibbles with the three-strong European team here in terms of talent. All of them are G1 winners, and they’re all in good form – including last year’s winner Glass Slippers, who posted another prominent display last time out behind A Case Of You in the Prix de l’Abbaye.
Glass Slippers’s stablemate Emaraaty Ana might be the pick of them. however. Trainer Kevin Ryan suggested he is “as good a horse as I’ve ever trained” after winning the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock – and he travels like a dream behind a strong pace."
In Europe, that is. Before Keeneland last year, Europe’s record in this race was truly abysmal and it would be no surprise if there’s a regression to the mean. It is a big call to imagine any of them matching strides with a speedster like Golden Pal around these tight turns.
True, the Ward trainee has never truly lived up to the hype on his visits to Europe but this promises an entirely different ball game, and if he fails, it is just as likely one of his US compatriots will benefit. Course-and-distance scorer Lieutenant Dan appeals.
Even allowing for a powerful array of overseas horses, War Like Goddess has been favorite on both sides of the Atlantic. I’m not sure this is right, although Love has been hit by some sort of malaise this term and doesn’t look the same filly as the one who cut such a dash through the Classic scene in 2020.
At her best, she would be clear market leader – but it’s a big ‘if’.
Audarya comes here in at least as good form as she was before last year’s surprise triumph – she looked sure to win a furlong out last time out in the Prix de l’Opera before getting swamped in the mud behind French-trained rival Rougir. The latter’s trainer Cedric Rossi seems adamant fast ground won’t be an issue her but all her best runs come with considerable give.
Nevertheless, it’s a good-looking team. But the one I like does not come from Europe, because Loves Only You looks well placed to record a historic first Breeders’ Cup victory for Japan.
It would be no surprise if US handicappers downplay the mare’s chances given her nation’s dismal 0-for-13 record at this event, but how often have they sent anything with a serious chance? There’s no Lasix now, and 1 3/8 miles looks tailor-made for this Japanese classic winner whose Dubai/Hong Kong form puts her seriously in the mix.
I can imagine US handicappers not liking Space Blues. Here’s why: the Breeders’ Cup Mile is often a crapshoot with a full field hurtling around tight turns, and the Godolphin star looks a proper seven-furlong specialist who hasn’t run at a mile since being beaten at odds-on in a minor race at Nottingham in April 2019.
What is more, although he was nominated for this as soon as he won the G1 Prix de la Foret with a brilliant turf of foot to beat Mile rival Pearls Galore, that race came in heavy Paris ground at the Arc meet. Could Del Mar be any more different?
Yet despite all this, he looks the right choice to me. He’ll need the gaps to appear at the right time but similar 7f types have often fared well in this race, he’s got a nice draw and plenty of form on faster ground (won in Saudi Arabia, and they don’t often produce soft ground in Riyadh).
His only bad runs have come when he’s been dropped to five furlongs; otherwise he is 7-8 over the last two seasons. He’ll also get a nice toe into the race from the likes of Blowout and Got Stormy.
No Breeders’ Cup race has been as welcoming to visitors as the Turf, and even allowing for the vagaries of Del Mar, Europe has every right to be confident of embellishing an excellent record here.
Domestic Spending is rated second favorite behind Tarnawa but the Chad Brown first string is the only US-trained horse trading at single figures with British bookmakers, with whom visitors occupy six of the first seven market positions.
Nothing that has happened in the US marathon division this year is likely to frighten a top-class Euro – the likes of Bolshoi Ballet, not even guaranteed a run here, has a G1 win to his name in New York. Moreover, the Andre Fabre-trained Talismanic was by no means a household name across the Atlantic and he thwarted the home team at Del Mar in 2017.
Frankly, I can't see anything other than an away win. That said, while Tarnawa is an admirable mare who looks the only real superstar in the whole European team, there must be certain provisos about her repeat bid. She has a brilliant turn of foot over 12 furlongs, but gate 13 can hardly be regarded as a positive, and she had a grueling race in the Arc.
Trainer Dermot Weld has also voiced concerns about the less forgiving turf at Del Mar compared to Keeneland 12 months ago.
Mind you, she is clearly the best horse in the race, so in the end it probably comes down to what sort of bang you’ll be getting for your buck. If she drifts to much beyond 2-1, it’s probably a chance worth taking.
There are other options at bigger each-way prices, though they don’t come from five-time winner Aidan O’Brien. All his runners (including also eligibles) are G1 winners but none of them arrives in the best of heart, and there’s even a suggestion the trainer favors Bolshoi Ballet, who needs a scratch to get a run.
Although Teona finally came good in the Prix Vermeille, that race fell apart to some extent but she’s progressive. Teona missed the Arc owing to the soft ground.
Godolphin’s pair both hold claims, with preference for Walton Street over quirky 3-year-old Yibir. The latter needs every inch of this 1 1/2-miles in Europe and may just find things happening too quickly, while Walton Street likes the ground and has form not far off the best. He couldn’t have won the Canadian International much easier, even if that was a substandard race.
German Derby winner Sisfahan is also worth a serious look at a big price – he was only a length behind Arc winner Torquator Tasso at Baden-Baden and is said to prefer faster ground, which makes him a rarity among German-trained horses.
Best Bet
Tarnawa is the star turn but with the various caveats, she might not be one to play for win purposes at likely prices. Of the other Europeans, Modern Games and Space Blues both appeal but I’m looking even further afield for my best bet and Loves Only You is fancied to strike a historic first win for Japan in the Filly & Mare Turf.
Nicholas Godfrey is a former winner of the Joe Hirsch Award for Outstanding Newspaper Writing at the Breeders’ Cup. After nearly 29 years at the Racing Post he founded the website horseracingplanet.com in 2020 and remains a regular contributor to At The Races, Thoroughbred Racing Commentary and Sky Sports Racing in Britain plus Al-Adiyat magazine in Dubai.