American Pharoah fair odds: Beat Baffert in BC Juvenile prep

Based on the morning line for the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, an entry of Bob Baffert's three likely starters would be 2-5, but my fair odds on the trio is just even money.

I'd like to think that augurs well for my bullish opinion on McKinzie Street, a Tim Yakteen pupil who is 8-5 on the morning line but 6-5 on my fair odds.

McKinzie Street has been impressive in both career starts, winning his career debut easily before finishing second in the Del Mar Futurity. Now he gets two turns, and should have dead aim on Citizen Bull turning for home.

Speaking of Citizen Bull, he is the Baffert trainee who interests me most, as I see him as a gate-to-wire threat. Ragozin Data says he is faster than uncoupled stablemate Getaway Car, which is good for bettors since Getaway Car is the 2-1 second choice with Citizen Bull at 3-1.

I give very little chance to any of the other four runners.

If Getaway Car is in fact second choice then I think the value will be there on McKinzie Street and Citizen Bull. I'd bet McKinzie Street at his fair odds or better and play exactas with Citizen Bull. I'm fading Getaway Car completely.

The American Pharoah is a Win & You're In race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. Given the World Championships' host track's penchant for playing to speed, Citizen Bull would move way up my rankings for that race if he were able to win this one gate-to-wire.